477 Iron Horse Way Unit H 5108

Winter Park, CO 80482

$739,000D

2 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,455 sqft · Built 1982 · Condo · Active · 143 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $8,121/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,875
• Tax + insurance: −$549
• HOA: −$2,938
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,705
• Net cashflow: $-946/mo
• Annual: $-11,357/yr
• Cap rate: 4.76%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.49%
• DSCR: 0.76
• 1% rule: 1.10%
• Cash to close: $206,920

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/3.0-bath condo listed at $739k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-946 ($-11k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $572k (22.6% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($8k rent vs $739k).
• It's been on market 143 days — a 12% lower offer ($650k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $572k (22.6% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• In year one you build about $17k of equity ($5k loan paydown + $11k appreciation (1.6% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#302 in CO) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: employment A+, crime A-, housing B+; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, commute F.
• East Grand School District No. 2 (rural): math 36% / reading 58% proficiency, ranked #17 of 86 in CO (top 20%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Watch-outs: HOA is 36% of rent.
• Market conditions: 210 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 294 units permitted in Grand County in 2024 (82 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Grand County population projected at -16% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $365k; list at $739k implies a 102% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$43k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Cap rate 4.8% vs local median 0.4% in Winter Park — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 143 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 23% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?