477 Iron Horse Way Unit H 5108 · Winter Park, CO 80482

$739,000

2 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,455 sqft · Condo public records · 143 Days on market

Built 1982 $2938/mo HOA · 36% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +7.4/30.0
• 1% rule +6.0/10.0
• Appreciation +5.8/10.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +1.6/10.0

Listing remarks

Experience the ultimate in mountain luxury with this top-floor, end-unit condo, offering unparalleled ski-in/ski-out access to Winter Park Resort. This spacious, 1500+ square foot furnished 2-bed, 3-bath unit includes a large living area and vaulted ceilings and an abundance of natural light. Additional sleep space in the main living area includes a Murphy bed plus a sleeper sofa easily sectioned off with a sliding privacy wall making it perfect for family and guest accommodations. This top floor end unit location is quiet with mature pine forest views & adjacent to the Fraser River. Beyond the slopes, this property boasts fantastic year-round income. You'll also enjoy a detached sing

Key facts

• Sauna
• Fire pit
• $2,938 HOA

Tags

• SKI-IN SKI-OUT ACCESS
• MATURE PINE FOREST VIEWS
• DETACHED SINGLE-CAR GARAGE
• FULLY EQUIPPED FITNESS CENTER
• FIRE PIT
• SAUNA

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Homeowners association; HOA fee $2,938 monthly

Exterior

• Parking: 1-car garage
• Utilities: Public water; Electric service on property
• Home design: Condominium; Residential multi-family property
• Construction: Frame construction

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Microwave; Range; Oven; Refrigerator
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Electric baseboard heating
• Interior features: Dishwasher; Disposal; Microwave; Range; Oven; Refrigerator; Washer/Dryer
• Laundry & utility: Washer/Dryer included; Washer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/3.0-bath condo listed at $739k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-946 ($-11k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $572k (22.6% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($8k rent vs $739k).
• Recommended offer: $572k (22.6% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 4.8% vs local median 0.4% in Winter Park — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#302 in CO) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: employment A+, crime A-, housing B+; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, commute F.
• East Grand School District No. 2 (rural): math 36% / reading 58% proficiency, ranked #17 of 86 in CO (top 20%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 210 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 294 units permitted in Grand County in 2024 (82 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $17k of equity ($5k loan paydown + $11k appreciation (1.6% local appreciation)).
• Grand County population projected at -16% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$43k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 143 days — a 12% lower offer ($650k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $365k; list at $739k implies a 102% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 36% of rent.

Recommended offer $571,814 (22.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 143 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 23% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.10% ✓
• Cap rate: 4.76%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.49%
• DSCR: 0.76
• GRM: 7.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

1.55% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -2.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.88×
• Total profit: $-24,759
• Equity at exit: $273,761

10-year hold

• IRR: 2.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.34×
• Total profit: $71,171
• Equity at exit: $381,033

Cash invested: $206,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 38 Tenant-Leaning
• State Colorado: 38 Tenant-Leaning · D+4
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2023 reforms: 10-day cure, mandated notice, source-of-income protected. Courts backlogged in Denver.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 80482

• Home prices YoY: 0.4%
• Active inventory: 210
• Price-to-rent: 7.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $8,121 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,875
• Tax from tax record: −$241 /mo · $2,891/yr
• Insurance: −$308
• HOA: −$2,938
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,705
• Net cashflow: $-946

Break-even live

Break-even rent $9,319

Max offer price $571,814

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $184,750
• Closing costs: $22,170
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
100 Iron Horse Way Unit 101 Two Bedroom / Den Winter Park, CO	2.0	2.0	1250	$6,000	$4.80	2d	1	0.14mi
100 Iron Horse Way Unit 405 Executive Penthouse Winter Park, CO	1.0	2.0	1500	$10,000	$6.67	21d	1	0.14mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $2,938 · $35,256/yr
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-14
   days on market $739,000 Active 143 DOM
2. 2026-06-10
   days on market $739,000 Active 140 DOM
3. 2026-06-09
   days on market $739,000 Active 139 DOM
4. 2026-06-08
   days on market $739,000 Active 138 DOM
5. 2026-06-07
   days on market $739,000 Active 137 DOM
6. 2026-06-05
   days on market $739,000 Active 134 DOM
7. 2026-06-03
   days on market $739,000 Active 133 DOM
8. 2026-06-02
   days on market $739,000 Active 132 DOM
9. 2026-06-01
   days on market $739,000 Active 131 DOM
10. 2026-05-31
    days on market $739,000 Active 130 DOM
11. 2026-05-31
    days on market $739,000 Active 129 DOM
12. 2026-01-16
    listed $739,000 Active
13. 2025-03-24
    price $929,000
14. 2025-03-10
    price $939,000
15. 2024-11-14
    listed $949,000 Active
16. 2005-10-14
    soldstatus $365,000
17. 1992-10-15
    soldstatus $200,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,891 · $241/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,064 · $339/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,174/yr (+$98/mo · 40.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 9 d/yr ≥71°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 8 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $97,455
• − Mortgage interest: −$41,395
• − Property taxes: −$2,891
• − Insurance: −$3,695
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$7,796
• − Management: −$7,796
• − HOA: −$35,256
• − Depreciation: −$21,498
• Taxable loss: −$22,873
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$5,490
• After-tax cash flow: $-5,867/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: East Grand School District No. 2
• NCES district ID: 0804320
• Math proficiency: 36% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 58% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $64,903
• Composite: 41.64/100
• National rank: #3424
• State rank: #17 of 86 in CO

Livability — Winter Park

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #302
• US rank: #21319

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A- Employment A+ Housing B+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Winter Park, CO
• City population: 1,237
• Population (ZIP): 1,237

Population outlook (Grand County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 14,498 people
• By 2030: 14,215 · -2.0%
• By 2040: 13,225 · -8.8%
• By 2050: 12,186 · -15.9%
• By 2075: 10,196 · -29.7%
• By 2100: 8,326 · -42.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (90%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 90% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Portuguese 2% Slovak 2%
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · German/W. Germanic 1% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Grand

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.0% · R 48.8% · Other 3.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.3pp no change · 2008: -1.1pp · 2024: -0.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+0.8 2020: R+1.8 2016: R+13.5 2012: R+7.2 2008: R+1.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 1.55%
• Current HPI: 365.2442
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.95%
• F500 in state: 14

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology Distribution	1	$31B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$18B
▸Packaging	1	$14B
▸Healthcare	1	$13B
▸Energy	1	$10B
▸Technology	1	$4B

Price history

+269.5% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-16 Listed $739,000 GCAR
• 2025-03-24 Price Changed $929,000 GCAR
• 2025-03-10 Price Changed $939,000 GCAR
• 2024-11-14 Listed $949,000 GCAR
• 2005-10-14 Sold (Public Records) $365,000 Public Records
• 1992-10-15 Sold (Public Records) $200,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+6.1%/yr

Latest (2024): $2,891 · +0.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.