135 Pine St

Chireno, TX 75937

$138,500D

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,334 sqft · Built — · SingleFamily · Pending · 17 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,099/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$726
• Tax + insurance: −$173
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$231
• Net cashflow: $-31/mo
• Annual: $-374/yr
• Cap rate: 6.02%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.96%
• DSCR: 0.96
• 1% rule: 0.79%
• Cash to close: $38,780

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $138k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-31 ($-374/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $133k (4.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $110k (20.7% below list).
• It's been on market 17 days — a 2% lower offer ($136k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $110k (20.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($958 loan paydown + $3k appreciation (1.9% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#1,228 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Chireno ISD (rural): math 33% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #490 of 826 in TX (top 59%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 74% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Chireno El (math 32% / reading 37%, grade F, #1,995 of 4,322 statewide, top 50%, 274 students, 74% FRL); Chireno H S (math 50% / reading 70%, grade C+, #275 of 1,632 statewide, top 19%, 130 students, 50% FRL).
• Market conditions: 6 active listings in the ZIP; 35 units permitted in Nacogdoches County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• 2 sale attempts since 8y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• At projected returns (1.9% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $39k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 9, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$30k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 6→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.