11218 E County Road 4

Esto, FL 36344

$135,000D+

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,885 sqft · Built 1971 · SingleFamily · Active · 44 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,104/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$708
• Tax + insurance: −$99
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$232
• Net cashflow: $65/mo
• Annual: $784/yr
• Cap rate: 6.87%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.07%
• DSCR: 1.09
• 1% rule: 0.82%
• Cash to close: $37,800

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $135k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $65 ($784/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $110k (18.2% below list).
• It's been on market 44 days — a 3% lower offer ($131k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $110k (18.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $933 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#872 in FL) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+; Watch: crime D+, employment D, health & safety D.
• Geneva County (rural): math 22% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #39 of 129 in AL (top 30%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Geneva County Elementary School (math 37% / reading 62%, grade D, #121 of 627 statewide, top 21%, 437 students, 69% FRL); Geneva County Middle School (math 22% / reading 52%, grade F, #73 of 257 statewide, top 29%, 179 students, 72% FRL); Geneva County High School (math 24% / reading 24%, grade F, #118 of 305 statewide, top 45%, 241 students, 67% FRL).
• Market conditions: 39 units permitted in Geneva County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Geneva County population projected to shrink 9% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 3 sale attempts since 17y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $25k (16%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $117k; 15% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 44 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 18% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1971 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.