11218 E County Road 4 · Esto, FL 36344

$135,000

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,885 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 44 Days on market

Built 1971 1.01 ac lot $72/sqft · 46% below area Est $248k · 46% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.9/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +4.9/10.0
• 1% rule +3.2/10.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Brick home on 1 acre offering privacy and potential! Built in 1971, this 4 bedroom, 2 bath home features an open floor plan and some tile flooring. Remodeling has already begun—bring your vision and finish it to match your style. Outside you’ll find a detached garage, storage building, and beautiful mature trees, all on a paved road for easy access. A great opportunity to create your dream home in a peaceful setting!

Key facts

• 1.01 acre lot
• Garage
• Built 1971

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage
• Utilities: Public water (see remarks); Septic tank sewer
• Home design: Single-family residence; One level
• Construction: Brick and vinyl siding construction; Other construction materials
• Exterior features: Covered porch/patio; Barn(s) on the property

Interior

• Flooring: Vinyl flooring; Other flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Ceiling fan(s)
• Laundry & utility: Laundry located inside

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $135k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $65 ($784/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $110k (18.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $110k (18.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#872 in FL) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+; Watch: crime D+, employment D, health & safety D.
• Geneva County (rural): math 22% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #39 of 129 in AL (top 30%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Geneva County Elementary School (math 37% / reading 62%, grade D, #121 of 627 statewide, top 21%, 437 students, 69% FRL); Geneva County Middle School (math 22% / reading 52%, grade F, #73 of 257 statewide, top 29%, 179 students, 72% FRL); Geneva County High School (math 24% / reading 24%, grade F, #118 of 305 statewide, top 45%, 241 students, 67% FRL).
• Market conditions: 39 units permitted in Geneva County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $933 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Geneva County population projected to shrink 9% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 44 days — a 3% lower offer ($131k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 17y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $25k (16%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $117k; 15% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $110,447 (18.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 44 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 18% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1971 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.82% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.87%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.07%
• DSCR: 1.09
• GRM: 10.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $248,327
• List price: $135,000
• Delta: -45.64%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.53×
• Total profit: $-17,776
• Equity at exit: $20,129

10-year hold

• IRR: -4.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.73×
• Total profit: $-10,369
• Equity at exit: $11,672

Cash invested: $37,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 36344

• Home prices YoY: -13.0%
• Price-to-rent: 10.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,104 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$708
• Tax from tax record: −$43 /mo · $516/yr
• Insurance: −$56
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$232
• Net cashflow: $65

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,022

Max offer price $135,000

Occupancy floor 89%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $33,750
• Closing costs: $4,050
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $135,000 Active 44 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $135,000 Active 43 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   price $135,000 Active 42 DOM

   Show marketing remark (432 chars)

   Brick home on 1 acre offering privacy and potential! Built in 1971, this 4 bedroom, 2 bath home features an open floor plan and some tile flooring. Remodeling has already begun—bring your vision and finish it to match your style. Outside you’ll find a detached garage, storage building, and beautiful mature trees, all on a paved road for easy access. A great opportunity to create your dream home in a peaceful setting!

4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $145,000 Active 42 DOM

   Show marketing remark (432 chars)

   Brick home on 1 acre offering privacy and potential! Built in 1971, this 4 bedroom, 2 bath home features an open floor plan and some tile flooring. Remodeling has already begun—bring your vision and finish it to match your style. Outside you’ll find a detached garage, storage building, and beautiful mature trees, all on a paved road for easy access. A great opportunity to create your dream home in a peaceful setting!

5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $145,000 Active 41 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $145,000 Active 40 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $145,000 Active 38 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $145,000 Active 37 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $145,000 Active 34 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $145,000 Active 33 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $145,000 Active 32 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $145,000 Active 29 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $145,000 Active 28 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $145,000 Active 27 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $145,000 Active 26 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $145,000 Active 25 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $145,000 Active 24 DOM
18. 2026-05-06
    listed $160,000 Active 436-char remark
19. 2026-05-05
    listed $160,000 Active 432-char remark

    Show marketing remark (432 chars)

    Brick home on 1 acre offering privacy and potential! Built in 1971, this 4 bedroom, 2 bath home features an open floor plan and some tile flooring. Remodeling has already begun—bring your vision and finish it to match your style. Outside you’ll find a detached garage, storage building, and beautiful mature trees, all on a paved road for easy access. A great opportunity to create your dream home in a peaceful setting!

20. 2009-09-30
    soldstatus $117,000

    Show marketing remark (235 chars)

    Wire, BRAND NEW ROOF JUST PUT ON . .. DEN IS A NICE SIZE AND HAS CERAMIC TILE FLOORS. . CAN BE USED AS A 4TH BEDROOM -- LARGE LAUNDRY ROOM. .. ABOUT AN ACRE OF LAND AND NICELY LANDSCAPED. . OWNER HAS A SURVEY OF THE PROPERTY. .. .. .,

21. 2009-06-04
    listed $125,000

    Show marketing remark (235 chars)

    Wire, BRAND NEW ROOF JUST PUT ON . .. DEN IS A NICE SIZE AND HAS CERAMIC TILE FLOORS. . CAN BE USED AS A 4TH BEDROOM -- LARGE LAUNDRY ROOM. .. ABOUT AN ACRE OF LAND AND NICELY LANDSCAPED. . OWNER HAS A SURVEY OF THE PROPERTY. .. .. .,

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $516 · $43/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,120 · $93/mo
• Expected delta: +$604/yr (+$50/mo · 117.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,254
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,562
• − Property taxes: −$516
• − Insurance: −$675
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,060
• − Management: −$1,060
• − Depreciation: −$3,927
• Taxable loss: −$1,547
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$371
• After-tax cash flow: $1,155/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Geneva County
• NCES district ID: 0101660
• Math proficiency: 22% ▼ -32.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $36,144
• Composite: 30.15/100
• National rank: #6325
• State rank: #39 of 129 in AL

Livability — Esto

• Score: 56/100
• State rank: #872
• US rank: #22936

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment D Housing C+ Health & safety D User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 5,345

Population outlook (Geneva County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 26,614 people
• By 2030: 26,346 · -1.0%
• By 2040: 25,491 · -4.2%
• By 2050: 24,280 · -8.8%
• By 2075: 20,914 · -21.4%
• By 2100: 16,830 · -36.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Black 11% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 4%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 0% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2% Korean 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Geneva

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+77.0) · D 11.2% · R 88.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.5pp toward R · 2008: -62.5pp · 2024: -77.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+77.0 2020: R+73.8 2016: R+72.4 2012: R+63.0 2008: R+62.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -22.75%
• Current HPI: 151.8431
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+8.0% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-17 Price Changed $135,000 WBR
• 2026-06-17 Price Changed $135,000 SAMLS
• 2026-05-21 Price Changed $145,000 SAMLS
• 2026-05-21 Price Changed $145,000 WBR
• 2026-05-06 Listed $160,000 SAMLS
• 2026-05-05 Listed $160,000 WBR
• 2009-09-30 Sold (MLS) $117,000 MAAR
• 2009-06-04 Listed $125,000 MAAR

Property tax history

+4.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $516 · +7.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.