1613 Canary Ln

Northlake, TX 76226

$360,000C

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,251 sqft · Built 2018 · SingleFamily · Active · 268 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,379/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,888
• Tax + insurance: −$251
• HOA: −$183
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$710
• Net cashflow: $348/mo
• Annual: $4,175/yr
• Cap rate: 7.45%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.14%
• DSCR: 1.18
• 1% rule: 0.94%
• Cash to close: $100,800

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $360k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $348 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $338k (6.1% below list).
• It's been on market 268 days — a 12% lower offer ($317k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $317k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#936 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Argyle ISD (rural): math 71% / reading 67% proficiency, ranked #8 of 826 in TX (top 1%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 13% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Argyle West (math 66% / reading 65%, grade B+, #234 of 4,322 statewide, top 6%, 845 students, 4% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.6%/yr); 1131 active listings in the ZIP; 39 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 11d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 10,531 units permitted in Denton County in 2024 (2,713 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Denton County population projected at +66% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $70k (16%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 7.5% vs local median 2.8% in Northlake — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 268 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.