1613 Canary Ln · Northlake, TX 76226

$360,000

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,251 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 268 Days on market

Built 2018 6,578 sqft lot Est $446k · 19% under $183/mo HOA · 5% of rent ↓ 7% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.6/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Schools +6.4/10.0
• DSCR +5.8/10.0
• 1% rule +4.4/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• 6,578 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2018

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Listing accepts Cash, Conventional, FHA, and VA financing; Short sale approval listed as contingency
• HOA & community: Mandatory HOA (Harvest by Hillwood); HOA dues $2,200 annually; HOA covers grounds maintenance and management fees

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage with garage door opener; Covered driveway; 2 covered parking spaces (carport/covered)
• Security: Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Curbs and sidewalks
• Home design: Single family residence; One and one-half story
• Construction: Built in 2018; Brick exterior; Composition roof; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Covered porch; Covered patio/porch; Wood fenced backyard; Corner lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Granite countertops; Built-in cabinets; Breakfast bar; Dishwasher; Gas oven; Microwave; Disposal
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms (all on main level)
• Flooring: Not specified
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (natural gas); Central electric air conditioning
• Interior features: Open floorplan; Decorative lighting; Granite counters; Eat-in kitchen; Pantry; Cable TV available; High speed internet available; Window coverings
• Laundry & utility: Utility room with full-size washer/dryer area and washer hookup; Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $360k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $348 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $338k (6.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $317k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.5% vs local median 2.8% in Northlake — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#936 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Argyle ISD (rural): math 71% / reading 67% proficiency, ranked #8 of 826 in TX (top 1%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 13% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Argyle West (math 66% / reading 65%, grade B+, #234 of 4,322 statewide, top 6%, 845 students, 4% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.6%/yr); 1131 active listings in the ZIP; 39 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 11d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 10,531 units permitted in Denton County in 2024 (2,713 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Denton County population projected at +66% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 268 days — a 12% lower offer ($317k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $70k (16%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $316,800 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 268 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.94% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.45%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.14%
• DSCR: 1.18
• GRM: 8.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $445,698
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1605 Moss Trail Ct	0.14mi	4/2.0	2,318 (+3%)	2mo	$550,000	$237	83
1904 Cardinal Way	0.31mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,209 (-2%)	0mo	$400,000	$181	73
1608 Victory Ter	0.52mi	4/3.0	2,319 (+3%)	1mo	$499,315	$215	70
1116 Grassy Ln	0.58mi	4/3.0	2,363 (+5%)	2mo	$515,000	$218	63
501 Fenceline Dr	0.66mi	4/2.5	2,196 (-2%)	1mo	$422,000	$192	63
1900 Cardinal Way	0.30mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,040 (-9%)	1mo	$385,000	$189	60
1900 6th St	0.59mi	4/3.0	2,106 (-6%)	2mo	$415,000	$197	60
2412 Blackrail Ct	0.62mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,212 (-2%)	1mo	$439,900	$199	58
421 Fenceline Dr	0.69mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,362 (+5%)	0mo	$425,000	$180	51
821 Meadows Dr	0.43mi	3/3.0 (-1)	2,575 (+14%)	2mo	$470,100	$183	49
8809 Thompson Rd	0.55mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,033 (-10%)	1mo	$419,900	$207	49
1410 Roundup Way	0.74mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,062 (-8%)	1mo	$409,000	$198	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.61% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -11.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.59×
• Total profit: $-40,891
• Equity at exit: $53,677

10-year hold

• IRR: -4.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.74×
• Total profit: $-25,884
• Equity at exit: $31,126

Cash invested: $100,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76226

• Home prices YoY: -24.4%
• Rents YoY: 1.6%
• Active inventory: 1131
• Price-to-rent: 8.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,379 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,888
• Tax from tax record: −$101 /mo · $1,206/yr
• Insurance: −$150
• HOA: −$183
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$710
• Net cashflow: $348

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,938

Max offer price $360,000

Occupancy floor 85%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $552	-5% $450	+0% $348	+5% $246	+10% $144
Rent	-10% $81	-5% $214	+0% $348	+5% $481	+10% $615
Rate	-1.0pp $529	-0.5pp $439	base $348	+0.5pp $255	+1.0pp $160

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $90,000
• Closing costs: $10,800
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 39 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1601 Bunting Dr Argyle, TX	3.0	2.0	2210	$3,195	$1.45	0d	1	0.04mi
1513 Canary Ln Argyle, TX	4.0	3.0	2511	$3,350	$1.33	13d	1	0.06mi
1712 Friendship Ln Unit NA Argyle, TX	3.0	2.5	2400	$3,950	$1.65	2d	1	0.10mi
1821 Waxwing Trl Argyle, TX	3.0	2.0	2208	$2,975	$1.35	11d	1	0.19mi
1309 E Swan Trl Argyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1871	$2,695	$1.44	2d	1	0.21mi
1316 Millerbird Way Argyle, TX	4.0	2.0	1806	$2,900	$1.61	0d	1	0.25mi
1904 Cardinal Way Argyle, TX	3.0	2.0	2209	$3,000	$1.36	3d	1	0.29mi
916 Dove Cv Argyle, TX	4.0	3.0	2263	$2,995	$1.32	11d	1	0.35mi
909 Fenceline Dr Argyle, TX	5.0	4.0	3214	$3,750	$1.17	44d	1	0.40mi
1450 20th St Northlake, TX	4.0	3.0	2476	$3,850	$1.55	11d	1	0.45mi
2108 Blackrail Ct Argyle, TX	3.0	2.0	2046	$2,850	$1.39	5d	1	0.45mi
1224 20th St Northlake, TX	4.0	3.0	3215	$4,500	$1.40	44d	1	0.60mi
909 Blossom Ln Unit 51 Argyle, TX	3.0	2.5	1844	$2,704	$1.47	23d	1	0.75mi
1813 McGee Ave Argyle, TX	4.0	3.0	2491	$2,450	$0.98	13d	1	0.77mi
1809 McGee Ave Argyle, TX	3.0	3.0	2571	$2,950	$1.15	0d	1	0.77mi
809 Blossom Ln Unit 35 Argyle, TX	3.0	2.5	1844	$2,610	$1.42	23d	1	0.79mi
209 Meadows Dr Argyle, TX	4.0	2.5	2798	$2,950	$1.05	0d	1	0.83mi
1724 Henderson Dr Argyle, TX	4.0	2.0	2044	$2,411	$1.18	0d	1	0.85mi
1704 Laurel Ln Argyle, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0–3.5	2116	$3,633	$1.72	0d	11	0.86mi
1804 Laurel Ln Argyle, TX	4.0	4.0	2439	$3,167	$1.30	44d	1	0.86mi
721 10th St Argyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1894	$2,550	$1.35	44d	1	0.89mi
701 10th St Argyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1884	$2,649	$1.41	44d	1	0.93mi
616 Gannet Trl Argyle, TX	3.0	2.0	2169	$2,800	$1.29	5d	1	0.96mi
605 Gannet Trl Argyle, TX	3.0	2.5	2209	$3,100	$1.40	25d	1	0.99mi
1056 Homestead Way Argyle, TX	3.0	2.5	2001	$2,900	$1.45	0d	1	1.01mi
517 Gannet Trl Argyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1872	$2,671	$1.43	44d	1	1.02mi
1728 Heron Way Argyle, TX	5.0	3.0	2799	$2,845	$1.02	0d	1	1.03mi
537 Parkside Dr Argyle, TX	3.0	2.5	1702	$2,499	$1.47	25d	1	1.04mi
724 4th St Argyle, TX	3.0	2.5	2025	$2,575	$1.27	23d	1	1.05mi
51 Oakmont Dr Argyle, TX	4.0	3.5	2766	$3,500	$1.27	0d	1	1.06mi
517 Parkside Dr Argyle, TX	3.0	2.5	1691	$2,500	$1.48	8d	1	1.06mi
824 Trailside Ln Argyle, TX	4.0	3.0	2453	$3,250	$1.32	44d	1	1.07mi
816 Trailside Ln Argyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1653	$2,595	$1.57	44d	1	1.07mi
200 Harvest Way Argyle, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1248	$2,983	$2.39	0d	246	1.08mi
512 Parkside Dr Argyle, TX	3.0	2.5	2001	$2,800	$1.40	0d	1	1.08mi
512 Parkside Dr Argyle, TX	3.0	2.5	2001	$2,750	$1.37	20d	1	1.08mi
420 4th St Argyle, TX	3.0	2.5	2035	$2,445	$1.20	12d	1	1.16mi
416 4th St Argyle, TX	3.0	2.5	2044	$2,850	$1.39	0d	1	1.16mi
109k Gannet Trl Argyle, TX	5.0	3.0	2519	$2,895	$1.15	0d	1	1.18mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $183 · $2,196/yr

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $360,000 Active 268 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $360,000 Active 265 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $360,000 Active 264 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $360,000 Active 263 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $360,000 Active 262 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $360,000 Active 260 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $360,000 Active 259 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $360,000 Active 256 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $360,000 Active 255 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $360,000 Active 254 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $360,000 Active 251 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $360,000 Active 250 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $360,000 Active 249 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $360,000 Active 248 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $360,000 Active 247 DOM
16. 2026-03-13
    historical Active Option Contract
17. 2026-03-03
    price $399,000
18. 2025-11-22
    price $400,000
19. 2025-11-11
    price $405,000
20. 2025-10-23
    price $415,000
21. 2025-10-14
    price $420,000
22. 2025-09-26
    status Active
23. 2025-09-23
    historical
24. 2025-08-23
    listed $430,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,206 · $101/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,588 · $549/mo
• Expected delta: +$5,382/yr (+$448/mo · 446.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 24% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $40,546
• − Mortgage interest: −$20,166
• − Property taxes: −$1,206
• − Insurance: −$1,800
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,244
• − Management: −$3,244
• − HOA: −$2,196
• − Depreciation: −$10,473
• Taxable loss: −$1,782
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$428
• After-tax cash flow: $4,602/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Argyle ISD
• NCES district ID: 4808670
• Math proficiency: 71% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 67% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $108,516
• Composite: 64.16/100
• National rank: #568
• State rank: #8 of 826 in TX

Livability — Northlake

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #936
• US rank: #16625

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Denton County · 901,654 people
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 43,587
• Household income: $180,982
• Rent vs Own: 6.4% rent · 93.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 40.0

Population outlook (Denton County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,053,010 people
• By 2030: 1,192,269 · +13.2%
• By 2040: 1,472,920 · +39.9%
• By 2050: 1,746,506 · +65.9%
• By 2075: 2,358,497 · +124.0%
• By 2100: 2,779,183 · +163.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 76% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 10% Asian 7% Black 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Romanian 2% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, South Korea, China
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Indo-European 3% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Denton

• 2024 margin: R (+13.2) · D 42.7% · R 55.8% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +11.0pp toward D · 2008: -24.2pp · 2024: -13.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+13.2 2020: R+8.1 2016: R+20.2 2012: R+31.7 2008: R+24.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -81.81%
• Current HPI: 253.1948
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.61%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-7.2% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-13 Contingent — NTREIS
• 2026-03-03 Price Changed $399,000 NTREIS
• 2025-11-22 Price Changed $400,000 NTREIS
• 2025-11-11 Price Changed $405,000 NTREIS
• 2025-10-23 Price Changed $415,000 NTREIS
• 2025-10-14 Price Changed $420,000 NTREIS
• 2025-09-26 Relisted — NTREIS
• 2025-09-23 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2025-08-23 Listed $430,000 NTREIS

Property tax history

+101.8%/yr

Latest (2019): $1,206 · +101.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.