Cumberland Plan

Surprise, AZ 85387

$399,990F

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,914 sqft · Built — · SingleFamily · Active · 301 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,511/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,255
• Tax + insurance: −$717
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$527
• Net cashflow: $-988/mo
• Annual: $-11,856/yr
• Cap rate: 3.54%
• Cash-on-cash: -9.85%
• DSCR: 0.56
• 1% rule: 0.58%
• Cash to close: $120,400

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $400k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-988 ($-12k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $287k (28.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $251k (37.2% below list).
• It's been on market 301 days — a 12% lower offer ($352k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $251k (37.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#19 in AZ, #4,616 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, employment A-; Watch: health & safety D+, amenities D-, commute F.
• Wickenburg Unified District (4236) (rural): math 33% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #92 of 249 in AZ (top 37%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Festival Foothills Elementary School (math 47% / reading 47%, grade D-, #308 of 1,109 statewide, top 29%, 314 students, 31% FRL); Vulture Peak Middle School (math 27% / reading 32%, grade F, #84 of 218 statewide, top 41%, 162 students, 51% FRL); Wickenburg High School (math 27% / reading 32%, grade F, #120 of 381 statewide, top 34%, 460 students, 40% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 1600 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($99k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 301 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 37% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.