Cumberland Plan · Surprise, AZ 85387

$399,990

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,914 sqft · SingleFamily · 348 Days on market

Good condition ↓ 1% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +4.8/30.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• 1% rule +0.7/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The Cumberland | Refined Ranch-Style Living Experience timeless design and modern comfort in the Cumberland, a beautifully crafted single-story home that blends architectural charm with contemporary elegance. Choose Your Elevation Style: Elevation A- Spanish: Warm tones, arched details, and classic stucco finishes Elevation B- Modern Farmhouse: Crisp lines, board-and-batten accents, and inviting curb appeal Elevation C- Modern Prairie: Clean geometry, low-pitched rooflines, and earthy textures Thoughtful Layout & Living Spaces Enter into a welcoming foyer that leads to Bedrooms 2 and 3, thoughtfully positioned with a shared guest bath between them. A functional mud room offers direct access from the 2-bay garage and connects to bedroom 4. The open-concept kitchen is a chef's dream, featuring a spacious island, walk-in pantry, and an adjacent dining area connecting to the back patio. The expansive great room flows seamlessly overlooking the backyard, creating the perfect setting for entertaining or relaxing. Retreat to the unique primary suite, complete with a spa-inspired bathroom, sleek walk-in shower, and a generous walk-in closet. A dedicated laundry room and a covered patio round out the home's well-considered design.

Key facts

• Cardinals stadium
• Downtown surprise
• Sky harbor airport

Tags

• DOWNTOWN SURPRISE
• WEST VALLEY EMPLOYMENT HUBS
• SKY HARBOR AIRPORT
• MLB SPRING TRAINING FACILITIES
• CARDINALS STADIUM
• SURPRISE AQUATIC CENTER

🏗️ New construction. The $399,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $434,995.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $400k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-13k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $281k (29.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $246k (38.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $246k (38.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#19 in AZ, #4,616 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, employment A-; Watch: health & safety D+, amenities D-, commute F.
• Wickenburg Unified District (4236) (rural): math 33% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #92 of 249 in AZ (top 37%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Festival Foothills Elementary School (math 47% / reading 47%, grade D-, #308 of 1,109 statewide, top 29%, 314 students, 31% FRL); Vulture Peak Middle School (math 27% / reading 32%, grade F, #84 of 218 statewide, top 41%, 162 students, 51% FRL); Wickenburg High School (math 27% / reading 32%, grade F, #120 of 381 statewide, top 34%, 460 students, 40% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 1869 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 348 days — a 12% lower offer ($352k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $245,902 (38.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 348 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 39% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.57% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.36%
• Cash-on-cash: -10.48%
• DSCR: 0.53
• GRM: 14.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $434,995
• List price: $399,990
• Delta: -8.05%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
22875 W Monona Ln	0.32mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,866 (-2%)	0mo	$419,715	$225	76
22908 W Monona Ln	0.31mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,778 (-7%)	1mo	$407,000	$229	68
22863 W Monona Ln	0.33mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,778 (-7%)	1mo	$409,000	$230	67
22665 W Pontiac Dr	0.56mi	4/2.5	2,014 (+5%)	2mo	$425,000	$211	62
22630 W Pontiac Dr	0.59mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,844 (-4%)	1mo	$420,000	$228	61
22600 W Pontiac Dr	0.62mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,844 (-4%)	1mo	$425,990	$231	59
22596 W Pontiac Dr	0.63mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,844 (-4%)	0mo	$381,000	$207	59
22611 W Pontiac Dr	0.62mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,844 (-4%)	2mo	$398,990	$216	58
22975 W Monona Ln	0.23mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,181 (+14%)	2mo	$390,990	$179	58
20640 N 226th Dr	0.57mi	4/2.5	2,113 (+10%)	1mo	$434,990	$206	53
22645 W Irma Ln	0.55mi	4/2.5	2,113 (+10%)	2mo	$420,000	$199	53
22631 W Irma Ln	0.57mi	4/2.5	2,113 (+10%)	2mo	$390,000	$185	52

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.95% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -37.5%
• Equity multiple: -0.18×
• Total profit: $-143,158
• Equity at exit: $64,859

10-year hold

• IRR: -70.0%
• Equity multiple: -0.90×
• Total profit: $-231,305
• Equity at exit: $37,610

Cash invested: $121,799 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Balanced market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 62 active · 46 under contract
• Months of supply: 5.6 mo (18%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $422,990 ($214/sqft)
• Median days on market: 116 d
• This list price: 27% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +6.1% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 85387

• Home prices YoY: -17.6%
• Rents YoY: 0.9%
• Active inventory: 1869
• Price-to-rent: 13.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,459 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,281
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$544 /mo · $6,525/yr
• Insurance: −$181
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$516
• Net cashflow: $-1,064

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,805

Max offer price $281,101

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-763	-5% $-913	+0% $-1,064	+5% $-1,214	+10% $-1,364
Rent	-10% $-1,258	-5% $-1,161	+0% $-1,064	+5% $-966	+10% $-869
Rate	-1.0pp $-844	-0.5pp $-953	base $-1,064	+0.5pp $-1,176	+1.0pp $-1,291

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $108,749
• Closing costs: $13,050
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
23011 W Potter Dr Surprise, AZ	4.0	3.0	2079	$2,350	$1.13	9d	1	0.15mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-09-24
   days on market $399,990 Active 348 DOM
2. 2026-09-23
   days on market $399,990 Active 347 DOM
3. 2026-09-22
   days on market $399,990 Active 346 DOM
4. 2026-09-21
   days on market $399,990 Active 345 DOM
5. 2026-09-20
   days on market $399,990 Active 344 DOM
6. 2026-09-19
   days on market $399,990 Active 343 DOM
7. 2026-09-18
   days on market $399,990 Active 342 DOM
8. 2026-09-17
   days on market $399,990 Active 341 DOM
9. 2026-09-16
   days on market $399,990 Active 340 DOM
10. 2026-09-15
    days on market $399,990 Active 339 DOM
11. 2026-09-14
    days on market $399,990 Active 338 DOM
12. 2026-09-13
    days on market $399,990 Active 337 DOM
13. 2026-09-12
    days on market $399,990 Active 336 DOM
14. 2026-09-11
    days on market $399,990 Active 335 DOM
15. 2026-09-05
    days on market $399,990 Active 329 DOM
16. 2026-09-04
    days on market $399,990 Active 328 DOM
17. 2026-09-03
    days on market $399,990 Active 327 DOM
18. 2026-08-31
    days on market $399,990 Active 324 DOM
19. 2026-08-30
    days on market $399,990 Active 323 DOM
20. 2026-08-29
    days on market $399,990 Active 322 DOM
21. 2026-08-28
    days on market $399,990 Active 321 DOM
22. 2026-08-27
    days on market $399,990 Active 320 DOM
23. 2026-08-25
    days on market $399,990 Active 318 DOM
24. 2026-08-24
    days on market $399,990 Active 317 DOM
25. 2026-08-23
    days on market $399,990 Active 316 DOM
26. 2026-08-22
    days on market $399,990 Active 315 DOM
27. 2026-08-21
    days on market $399,990 Active 314 DOM
28. 2026-08-20
    days on market $399,990 Active 313 DOM
29. 2026-08-19
    days on market $399,990 Active 312 DOM
30. 2026-08-18
    days on market $399,990 Active 311 DOM
31. 2026-08-17
    days on market $399,990 Active 310 DOM
32. 2026-08-16
    days on market $399,990 Active 309 DOM
33. 2026-08-15
    days on market $399,990 Active 308 DOM
34. 2026-08-14
    days on market $399,990 Active 307 DOM
35. 2026-08-13
    days on market $399,990 Active 306 DOM
36. 2026-08-12
    days on market $399,990 Active 305 DOM
37. 2026-08-11
    days on market $399,990 Active 304 DOM
38. 2026-08-10
    days on market $399,990 Active 303 DOM
39. 2026-08-09
    days on market $399,990 Active 302 DOM
40. 2026-08-08
    days on market $399,990 Active 301 DOM
41. 2026-08-06
    days on market $399,990 Active 299 DOM
42. 2026-08-05
    days on market $399,990 Active 298 DOM
43. 2026-08-04
    days on market $399,990 Active 297 DOM
44. 2026-08-03
    days on market $399,990 Active 296 DOM
45. 2026-07-31
    days on market $399,990 Active 293 DOM
46. 2026-07-30
    days on market $399,990 Active 292 DOM
47. 2026-07-30
    days on market $399,990 Active 291 DOM
48. 2026-07-28
    days on market $399,990 Active 290 DOM
49. 2026-07-26
    days on market $399,990 Active 288 DOM
50. 2026-07-24
    days on market $399,990 Active 286 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,508
• − Mortgage interest: −$24,366
• − Property taxes: −$6,525
• − Insurance: −$2,175
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,361
• − Management: −$2,361
• − Depreciation: −$12,654
• Taxable loss: −$20,934
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$5,024
• After-tax cash flow: $-7,738/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 5 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $9,570–$28,710 screening

The Cumberland Plan in Surprise, AZ is in good condition with a cosmetic rehab level. It features a well-maintained exterior, clean interior, and a thoughtfully designed layout. Painting the exterior and improving landscaping can significantly increase its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior — Enhances curb appeal and can increase both resale and rental value ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and can increase both resale and rental value ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 31/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Hassayampa Elementary School F AZ #471/1,109 Nat'l #23,081/41,679 Middle Vulture Peak Middle School F AZ #84/218 Nat'l #9,020/14,009 High Wickenburg High School F AZ #120/381 Nat'l #11,215/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Wickenburg Unified District (4236)
• NCES district ID: 0409190
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $47,369
• Composite: 29.27/100
• National rank: #6560
• State rank: #92 of 249 in AZ

B Composite livability gradescore 74/100

Livability — Surprise

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #19
• US rank: #4616

Category grades

Amenities D- Commute F Cost of living C Crime A+ Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety D+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Surprise, AZ
• County: Maricopa County · 4,979,203 people
• City population: 160,031
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 22,442
• Household income: $98,757
• Rent vs Own: 5.0% rent · 95.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 11% of renters

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Population outlook (Maricopa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 4,979,203 people
• By 2030: 5,378,229 · +8.0%
• By 2040: 6,156,598 · +23.6%
• By 2050: 6,872,376 · +38.0%
• By 2075: 8,401,270 · +68.7%
• By 2100: 9,247,439 · +85.7%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (78%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 78% Hispanic / Latino 12% Two or more races 8% Black 3% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 10%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 4% Lithuanian 4% Romanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 4% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Maricopa

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.1pp toward D · 2008: -10.6pp · 2024: -3.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+3.5 2012: R+12.0 2008: R+10.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -56.16%
• Current HPI: 263.1123
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.95%
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

-1.2% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-14 Price Changed $399,990 Zillow
• 2025-10-11 Listed $404,990 Zillow