4603 Flatlick Branch Dr

Chantilly, VA 20151

$559,900D

5 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,580 sqft · Built 2000 · Townhouse · Pending · 2 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $4,359/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,936
• Tax + insurance: −$714
• HOA: −$100
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$915
• Net cashflow: $-307/mo
• Annual: $-3,678/yr
• Cap rate: 5.64%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.35%
• DSCR: 0.90
• 1% rule: 0.78%
• Cash to close: $156,772

Investor read

• This is a 5-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $560k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-307 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $506k (9.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $436k (22.2% below list).
• Only 2 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $436k (22.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $17k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#66 in VA, #2,106 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: commute F, cost of living F.
• Fairfax County Public School District (suburban): math 61% / reading 73% proficiency, ranked #13 of 131 in VA (top 10%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Poplar Tree Elementary (math 92% / reading 95%, grade A+, #3 of 1,108 statewide, top 0%, 671 students, 10% FRL); Rocky Run Middle (math 85% / reading 92%, grade A+, #5 of 342 statewide, top 1%, 936 students, 19% FRL); Chantilly High (math 68% / reading 72%, grade B+, #151 of 319 statewide, top 49%, 2,937 students, 20% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 84% at this address vs 67% district-wide (+17 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Fairfax County Public School District average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.3%/yr); 85 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 13d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 2,861 units permitted in Fairfax County in 2024 (1,829 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Fairfax County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 3 sale attempts since 6y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.6% vs local median 3.0% in Chantilly — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($158k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.