5209 E Grand Ave

Fountain Lake, AR 71901

$125,900D+

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,296 sqft · Built 1961 · SingleFamily · Under Contract · 31 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,208/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$660
• Tax + insurance: −$122
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$254
• Net cashflow: $172/mo
• Annual: $2,065/yr
• Cap rate: 7.93%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.86%
• DSCR: 1.26
• 1% rule: 0.96%
• Cash to close: $35,252

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $126k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $172 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $121k (4.1% below list).
• It's been on market 31 days — a 3% lower offer ($122k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $121k (4.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $870 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#256 in AR) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Cutter-Morning Star School District (rural): math 27% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #159 of 238 in AR (top 67%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 363 active listings in the ZIP; 117 units permitted in Garland County in 2024 (24 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Garland County population projected at +7% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 11 sale attempts since 9y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 31 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 4% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1961 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.