5209 E Grand Ave · Fountain Lake, AR 71901

$125,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,296 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 31 Days on market

Built 1961 0.48 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.8/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.6/10.0
• 1% rule +4.6/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Beautiful 2-bedroom 1-bath home with just under half an acre! Thoughtful updates, including flooring, furnace, A/C unit, water heater, and well house plumbing, including a new line from the well house to the home. The property has a nice outdoor storage shed that conveys and a fully fenced-in yard with a gate for entry. Great property for first-time home buyers or an addition to an investor's portfolio.

Key facts

• Outdoor storage shed
• Fully fenced yard
• 0.48 acre lot

Tags

• OUTDOOR STORAGE SHED
• FULLY FENCED YARD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $126k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $172 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $121k (4.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $121k (4.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#256 in AR) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Cutter-Morning Star School District (rural): math 27% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #159 of 238 in AR (top 67%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 363 active listings in the ZIP; 117 units permitted in Garland County in 2024 (24 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $870 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Garland County population projected at +7% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 31 days — a 3% lower offer ($122k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 11 sale attempts since 9y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $120,789 (4.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 31 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 4% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1961 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.96% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.93%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.86%
• DSCR: 1.26
• GRM: 8.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -7.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.73×
• Total profit: $-9,475
• Equity at exit: $18,772

10-year hold

• IRR: 2.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.16×
• Total profit: $5,719
• Equity at exit: $10,886

Cash invested: $35,252 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arkansas: 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Only US state where non-payment is criminal. Strongly landlord-favorable; very few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 71901

• Home prices YoY: -3.6%
• Active inventory: 363
• Price-to-rent: 8.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,208 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$660
• Tax from tax record: −$69 /mo · $833/yr
• Insurance: −$52
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$254
• Net cashflow: $172

Break-even live

Break-even rent $990

Max offer price $125,900

Occupancy floor 81%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,475
• Closing costs: $3,777
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 36 events

1. 2026-05-12
   status Under Contract 407-char remark

   Show marketing remark (407 chars)

   Beautiful 2-bedroom 1-bath home with just under half an acre! Thoughtful updates, including flooring, furnace, A/C unit, water heater, and well house plumbing, including a new line from the well house to the home. The property has a nice outdoor storage shed that conveys and a fully fenced-in yard with a gate for entry. Great property for first-time home buyers or an addition to an investor's portfolio.

2. 2026-05-03
   price $125,900 407-char remark

   Show marketing remark (407 chars)

   Beautiful 2-bedroom 1-bath home with just under half an acre! Thoughtful updates, including flooring, furnace, A/C unit, water heater, and well house plumbing, including a new line from the well house to the home. The property has a nice outdoor storage shed that conveys and a fully fenced-in yard with a gate for entry. Great property for first-time home buyers or an addition to an investor's portfolio.

3. 2026-04-11
   listed $129,900 New Listing 407-char remark

   Show marketing remark (407 chars)

   Beautiful 2-bedroom 1-bath home with just under half an acre! Thoughtful updates, including flooring, furnace, A/C unit, water heater, and well house plumbing, including a new line from the well house to the home. The property has a nice outdoor storage shed that conveys and a fully fenced-in yard with a gate for entry. Great property for first-time home buyers or an addition to an investor's portfolio.

4. 2025-08-13
   historical
5. 2025-07-02
   price $129,900
6. 2025-05-29
   price $138,000
7. 2025-04-21
   price $143,000
8. 2025-03-23
   price $153,000
9. 2025-02-26
   listed $159,000 New Listing
10. 2023-10-20
    soldstatus $120,000
11. 2023-10-18
    soldstatus $120,000
12. 2023-10-18
    soldstatus $120,000 Sold
13. 2023-10-10
    status Under Contract
14. 2023-10-02
    status Take Backups
15. 2023-09-30
    historical
16. 2023-09-12
    historical Take Backups
17. 2023-09-11
    listed $125,000
18. 2023-08-02
    status Back on Market
19. 2023-07-20
    historical Take Backups
20. 2023-06-30
    listed $125,000 New Listing
21. 2023-01-01
    historical
22. 2022-10-03
    listed $129,000 New Listing
23. 2022-10-01
    historical
24. 2022-09-10
    price $139,000
25. 2022-07-21
    status Back on Market
26. 2022-06-27
    historical Take Backups
27. 2022-06-24
    listed $149,000 New Listing
28. 2022-03-29
    historical
29. 2022-03-11
    historical Take Backups
30. 2022-02-23
    price $109,000
31. 2022-01-12
    price $129,000
32. 2021-12-08
    listed $149,900 New Listing
33. 2018-02-08
    historical
34. 2017-12-04
    listed $75,000 New Listing
35. 2014-03-04
    soldstatus $52,000
36. 2007-04-18
    soldstatus $74,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AR · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $833 · $69/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $833 · $69/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 8% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,495
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,052
• − Property taxes: −$833
• − Insurance: −$630
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,160
• − Management: −$1,160
• − Depreciation: −$3,663
• Taxable loss: −$2
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$0
• After-tax cash flow: $2,066/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Cutter-Morning Star School District
• NCES district ID: 0504860
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 31% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $40,404
• Composite: 24.45/100
• National rank: #7667
• State rank: #159 of 238 in AR

Livability — Fountain Lake

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #256
• US rank: #18433

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Garland County · 76,414 people
• Metro: Hot Springs, AR
• Population (ZIP): 28,937
• Household income: $53,514
• Rent vs Own: 37.1% rent · 62.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 961.0

Population outlook (Garland County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 100,343 people
• By 2030: 101,880 · +1.5%
• By 2040: 104,804 · +4.4%
• By 2050: 107,292 · +6.9%
• By 2075: 113,182 · +12.8%
• By 2100: 112,247 · +11.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (71%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 71% Black 13% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 2% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 7% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Garland

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+36.2) · D 30.8% · R 67.0% · Other 2.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.3pp toward R · 2008: -25.0pp · 2024: -36.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+36.2 2020: R+34.0 2016: R+34.1 2012: R+29.9 2008: R+25.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -11.75%
• Current HPI: 317.2542
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Hot Springs, AR
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.80%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	1	$681B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$53B
▸Retail / Energy	1	$22B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$12B
▸Energy	1	$4B

Price history

+70.1% since first listed

36 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Pending — CARMLS
• 2026-05-03 Price Changed $125,900 CARMLS
• 2026-04-11 Listed $129,900 CARMLS
• 2025-08-13 Listing Removed — CARMLS
• 2025-07-02 Price Changed $129,900 CARMLS
• 2025-05-29 Price Changed $138,000 CARMLS
• 2025-04-21 Price Changed $143,000 CARMLS
• 2025-03-23 Price Changed $153,000 CARMLS
• 2025-02-26 Listed $159,000 CARMLS
• 2023-10-20 Sold (Public Records) $120,000 Public Records
• 2023-10-18 Sold (MLS) $120,000 CARMLS
• 2023-10-18 Sold (MLS) $120,000 HSBOR
• 2023-10-10 Pending — CARMLS
• 2023-10-02 Relisted — CARMLS
• 2023-09-30 Listing Removed — CARMLS
• 2023-09-12 Contingent — CARMLS
• 2023-09-11 Listed $125,000 HSBOR
• 2023-08-02 Relisted — CARMLS
• 2023-07-20 Contingent — CARMLS
• 2023-06-30 Listed $125,000 CARMLS
• 2023-01-01 Listing Removed — CARMLS
• 2022-10-03 Listed $129,000 CARMLS
• 2022-10-01 Listing Removed — CARMLS
• 2022-09-10 Price Changed $139,000 CARMLS
• 2022-07-21 Relisted — CARMLS
• 2022-06-27 Contingent — CARMLS
• 2022-06-24 Listed $149,000 CARMLS
• 2022-03-29 Listing Removed — CARMLS
• 2022-03-11 Contingent — CARMLS
• 2022-02-23 Price Changed $109,000 CARMLS
• 2022-01-12 Price Changed $129,000 CARMLS
• 2021-12-08 Listed $149,900 CARMLS
• 2018-02-08 Listing Removed — CARMLS
• 2017-12-04 Listed $75,000 CARMLS
• 2014-03-04 Sold (Public Records) $52,000 Public Records
• 2007-04-18 Sold (Public Records) $74,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+7.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $833 · -1.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.