12307 Buckingham St

Chester, VA 23831

$274,900C

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,252 sqft · Built 1941 · SingleFamily · Pending · 47 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,531/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,442
• Tax + insurance: −$361
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$531
• Net cashflow: $196/mo
• Annual: $2,357/yr
• Cap rate: 7.15%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.06%
• DSCR: 1.14
• 1% rule: 0.92%
• Cash to close: $76,972

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $275k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $196 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $253k (7.9% below list).
• It's been on market 47 days — a 3% lower offer ($267k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $253k (7.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#170 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, schools A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Chesterfield County Public School District (suburban): math 52% / reading 64% proficiency, ranked #57 of 131 in VA (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Watch-outs: built in 1941 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.0%/yr); 215 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 2,307 units permitted in Chesterfield County in 2024 (462 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Chesterfield County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 7.2% vs local median 3.6% in Chester — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($96k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 47 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 8% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1941 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.