12307 Buckingham St · Chester, VA 23831

$274,900

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,252 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 47 Days on market

Built 1941 0.73 ac lot $122/sqft · 23% below area Est $359k · 23% under ↓ 2% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.2/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +5.4/10.0
• Schools +5.2/10.0
• 1% rule +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Fantastic buy in Chester at an unbelievable price! This 4 bedroom/2 bath 2,252 sq. ft. Cape Cod is ready for its next owner to make it their own. Situated right off of Route 10 in the heart of Chester, this property has so much space to offer. As you walk in, there is a spacious foyer. To the right of the foyer is the living room with fireplace. In the great room area is a large dining room along with spacious kitchen perfect for entertaining. In the back is another room (family room?) that has a closet. Two bedrooms are on the first floor joined by a hall bathroom. Upstairs offers 2 more spacious bedrooms along with another hall bathroom. Situated on a large . 72 acre lot - this property offers a lot of land with it as well. Priced at $72,000 below it's 2026 tax assessment, this property is truly a bargain. Deals like this one in Chester are hard to find! Hurry and schedule your showing today before this one is GONE!

Key facts

• 0.73 acre lot
• Parking
• Built 1941

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $275k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $196 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $253k (7.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $253k (7.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.2% vs local median 3.6% in Chester — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#170 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, schools A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Chesterfield County Public School District (suburban): math 52% / reading 64% proficiency, ranked #57 of 131 in VA (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.0%/yr); 215 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 2,307 units permitted in Chesterfield County in 2024 (462 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($96k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Chesterfield County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 47 days — a 3% lower offer ($267k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1941 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $253,069 (7.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 47 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 8% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1941 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.92% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.15%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.06%
• DSCR: 1.14
• GRM: 9.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $359,203
• List price: $274,900
• Delta: -23.47%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
12309 Windsor Rd	0.16mi	4/2.5	2,378 (+6%)	1mo	$480,000	$202	80
12400 Windsor Rd	0.22mi	4/2.5	2,028 (-10%)	7mo	$399,950	$197	65
4242 Poplar Village Dr	0.50mi	4/2.5	2,072 (-8%)	4mo	$468,708	$226	58
11728 Village Garden Dr	0.55mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,098 (-7%)	1mo	$422,500	$201	57
4331 Poplar Village Dr	0.54mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,072 (-8%)	1mo	$440,000	$212	54
4428 Village Garden Cir	0.60mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,350 (+4%)	7mo	$461,900	$197	54
4248 Wells Ridge Ct	0.72mi	4/2.5	2,121 (-6%)	4mo	$392,500	$185	52
12508 Percival St	0.68mi	4/2.5	2,472 (+10%)	1mo	$360,000	$146	49
4312 Poplar Village Dr	0.49mi	4/3.0	2,503 (+11%)	9mo	$473,467	$189	47
4319 Poplar Village Dr	0.54mi	4/3.0	2,516 (+12%)	6mo	$485,000	$193	47
4201 Poplar Village Dr	0.58mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,072 (-8%)	8mo	$479,093	$231	46
4800 Empire Pkwy	0.75mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,004 (-11%)	9mo	$380,000	$190	32

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.05% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -12.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.55×
• Total profit: $-34,453
• Equity at exit: $40,988

10-year hold

• IRR: -4.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.69×
• Total profit: $-23,627
• Equity at exit: $23,768

Cash invested: $76,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 23831

• Rents YoY: 2.0%
• Active inventory: 215
• Price-to-rent: 9.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,531 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,442
• Tax from tax record: −$247 /mo · $2,960/yr
• Insurance: −$115
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$531
• Net cashflow: $196

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,282

Max offer price $274,900

Occupancy floor 87%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $68,725
• Closing costs: $8,247
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4341 Lafon St Chester, VA	4.0	2.0	1918	$2,400	$1.25	16d	1	0.19mi
11425 Claimont Mill Dr Chester, VA	3.0	2.0	1644	$2,500	$1.52	21d	1	0.72mi

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-06-05
   status $274,900 Pending 47 DOM
2. 2026-06-03
   days on market $274,900 Active 47 DOM
3. 2026-06-02
   days on market $274,900 Active 46 DOM
4. 2026-06-01
   days on market $274,900 Active 45 DOM
5. 2026-05-31
   days on market $274,900 Active 44 DOM
6. 2026-05-13
   price $274,900 933-char remark

   Show marketing remark (933 chars)

   Fantastic buy in Chester at an unbelievable price! This 4 bedroom/2 bath 2,252 sq. ft. Cape Cod is ready for its next owner to make it their own. Situated right off of Route 10 in the heart of Chester, this property has so much space to offer. As you walk in, there is a spacious foyer. To the right of the foyer is the living room with fireplace. In the great room area is a large dining room along with spacious kitchen perfect for entertaining. In the back is another room (family room?) that has a closet. Two bedrooms are on the first floor joined by a hall bathroom. Upstairs offers 2 more spacious bedrooms along with another hall bathroom. Situated on a large . 72 acre lot - this property offers a lot of land with it as well. Priced at $72,000 below it's 2026 tax assessment, this property is truly a bargain. Deals like this one in Chester are hard to find! Hurry and schedule your showing today before this one is GONE!

7. 2026-05-07
   status Active 933-char remark

   Show marketing remark (933 chars)

   Fantastic buy in Chester at an unbelievable price! This 4 bedroom/2 bath 2,252 sq. ft. Cape Cod is ready for its next owner to make it their own. Situated right off of Route 10 in the heart of Chester, this property has so much space to offer. As you walk in, there is a spacious foyer. To the right of the foyer is the living room with fireplace. In the great room area is a large dining room along with spacious kitchen perfect for entertaining. In the back is another room (family room?) that has a closet. Two bedrooms are on the first floor joined by a hall bathroom. Upstairs offers 2 more spacious bedrooms along with another hall bathroom. Situated on a large . 72 acre lot - this property offers a lot of land with it as well. Priced at $72,000 below it's 2026 tax assessment, this property is truly a bargain. Deals like this one in Chester are hard to find! Hurry and schedule your showing today before this one is GONE!

8. 2026-04-27
   status Pending 933-char remark

   Show marketing remark (933 chars)

   Fantastic buy in Chester at an unbelievable price! This 4 bedroom/2 bath 2,252 sq. ft. Cape Cod is ready for its next owner to make it their own. Situated right off of Route 10 in the heart of Chester, this property has so much space to offer. As you walk in, there is a spacious foyer. To the right of the foyer is the living room with fireplace. In the great room area is a large dining room along with spacious kitchen perfect for entertaining. In the back is another room (family room?) that has a closet. Two bedrooms are on the first floor joined by a hall bathroom. Upstairs offers 2 more spacious bedrooms along with another hall bathroom. Situated on a large . 72 acre lot - this property offers a lot of land with it as well. Priced at $72,000 below it's 2026 tax assessment, this property is truly a bargain. Deals like this one in Chester are hard to find! Hurry and schedule your showing today before this one is GONE!

9. 2026-04-07
   listed $279,900 Active 933-char remark

   Show marketing remark (933 chars)

   Fantastic buy in Chester at an unbelievable price! This 4 bedroom/2 bath 2,252 sq. ft. Cape Cod is ready for its next owner to make it their own. Situated right off of Route 10 in the heart of Chester, this property has so much space to offer. As you walk in, there is a spacious foyer. To the right of the foyer is the living room with fireplace. In the great room area is a large dining room along with spacious kitchen perfect for entertaining. In the back is another room (family room?) that has a closet. Two bedrooms are on the first floor joined by a hall bathroom. Upstairs offers 2 more spacious bedrooms along with another hall bathroom. Situated on a large . 72 acre lot - this property offers a lot of land with it as well. Priced at $72,000 below it's 2026 tax assessment, this property is truly a bargain. Deals like this one in Chester are hard to find! Hurry and schedule your showing today before this one is GONE!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,960 · $247/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,960 · $247/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,368
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,399
• − Property taxes: −$2,960
• − Insurance: −$1,374
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,429
• − Management: −$2,429
• − Depreciation: −$7,997
• Taxable loss: −$2,221
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$533
• After-tax cash flow: $2,890/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Chesterfield County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5100840
• Math proficiency: 52% ▼ -30.00%
• Reading proficiency: 64% ▼ -15.00%
• Median HH income: $72,821
• Composite: 51.56/100
• National rank: #1712
• State rank: #57 of 131 in VA

Livability — Chester

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #170
• US rank: #5369

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B Crime B- Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Chester, VA
• County: Chesterfield County · 406,988 people
• City population: 54,827
• Metro: Richmond, VA
• Population (ZIP): 39,529
• Household income: $95,750
• Rent vs Own: 27.9% rent · 72.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 952.0

Population outlook (Chesterfield County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 377,190 people
• By 2030: 395,710 · +4.9%
• By 2040: 427,694 · +13.4%
• By 2050: 452,706 · +20.0%
• By 2075: 505,533 · +34.0%
• By 2100: 521,282 · +38.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.62)
• Race & ethnicity: White 53% Black 30% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 7% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Italian 1% Slovak 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, China, South Korea
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 6% German/W. Germanic 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Chesterfield

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.0) · D 53.8% · R 44.8% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +16.4pp toward D · 2008: -7.5pp · 2024: 9.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.0 2020: D+6.7 2016: R+2.2 2012: R+7.1 2008: R+7.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -212.93%
• Current HPI: 252.2448
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• Metro: Richmond, VA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

-1.8% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-13 Price Changed $274,900 CVRMLS
• 2026-05-07 Relisted — CVRMLS
• 2026-04-27 Pending — CVRMLS
• 2026-04-07 Listed $279,900 CVRMLS

Property tax history

+4.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,960 · +5.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.