16929 Orleans Dr

Athens, AL 35613

$269,775D

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,753 sqft · Built — · SingleFamily · Active · 131 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,267/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,415
• Tax + insurance: −$450
• HOA: −$42
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$476
• Net cashflow: $-115/mo
• Annual: $-1,381/yr
• Cap rate: 5.78%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.83%
• DSCR: 0.92
• 1% rule: 0.84%
• Cash to close: $75,537

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $270k. Condition is rated excellent.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-115 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $253k (6.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $227k (15.9% below list).
• It's been on market 131 days — a 12% lower offer ($237k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $227k (15.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#18 in AL, #4,019 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment C-, commute F.
• Athens City (town): math 27% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #29 of 129 in AL (top 22%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: James L Cowart Elementary School (math 32% / reading 52%, grade F, #213 of 627 statewide, top 37%, 332 students, 67% FRL); Athens Middle School (math 15% / reading 45%, grade F, #121 of 257 statewide, top 50%, 958 students, 59% FRL); Athens High School (math 29% / reading 38%, grade F, #56 of 305 statewide, top 18%, 1,173 students, 51% FRL).
• Market conditions: 1031 active listings in the ZIP; 16 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 71d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 494 units permitted in Limestone County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Limestone County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Cap rate 5.8% vs local median 3.5% in Athens — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 131 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 16% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.