16929 Orleans Dr

Athens, AL 35611

$263,999D

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,753 sqft · Built 2026 · SingleFamily · Active · 122 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,053/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,384
• Tax + insurance: −$440
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$431
• Net cashflow: $-203/mo
• Annual: $-2,432/yr
• Cap rate: 5.37%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.29%
• DSCR: 0.85
• 1% rule: 0.78%
• Cash to close: $73,920

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $264k. Condition is rated excellent.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-203 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $235k (11.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $205k (22.2% below list).
• It's been on market 122 days — a 12% lower offer ($232k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $205k (22.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#18 in AL, #4,019 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment C-, commute F.
• Athens City (town): math 27% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #29 of 129 in AL (top 22%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: James L Cowart Elementary School (math 32% / reading 52%, grade F, #213 of 627 statewide, top 37%, 332 students, 67% FRL); Athens Middle School (math 15% / reading 45%, grade F, #121 of 257 statewide, top 50%, 958 students, 59% FRL); Athens High School (math 29% / reading 38%, grade F, #56 of 305 statewide, top 18%, 1,173 students, 51% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.2%/yr); 886 active listings in the ZIP; 23 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 110d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 65% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 494 units permitted in Limestone County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Limestone County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $14k (5%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Cap rate 5.4% vs local median 3.5% in Athens — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 43% of the median local income ($57k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 122 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 22% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.