16929 Orleans Dr · Athens, AL 35611

$263,999

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,753 sqft · SingleFamily · 122 Days on market

Built 2026 Excellent condition $151/sqft · 9% below area Est $290k · 9% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +11.5/15.0
• Cash flow +9.1/30.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• 1% rule +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• DSCR +2.5/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Under Construction-FULL BRICK!! The Fairfield is a thoughtfully designed, new single-family home features two stories of generous living space. Directly off the foyer is a free-flowing layout shared among a modern kitchen with center island, an intimate dining room and a welcoming Great Room for everyday activities. The second floor is comprised of all four bedrooms to offer private retreats. It includes a relaxing owner’s suite with an attached bathroom and walk-in closet.

Key facts

• Walk-in closet
• Great room
• Modern kitchen

Tags

• MODERN KITCHEN
• CENTER ISLAND
• GREAT ROOM
• OWNER'S SUITE
• WALK-IN CLOSET

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $264k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-203 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $235k (11.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $205k (22.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $205k (22.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.4% vs local median 3.5% in Athens — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#18 in AL, #4,019 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment C-, commute F.
• Athens City (town): math 27% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #29 of 129 in AL (top 22%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: James L Cowart Elementary School (math 32% / reading 52%, grade F, #213 of 627 statewide, top 37%, 332 students, 67% FRL); Athens Middle School (math 15% / reading 45%, grade F, #121 of 257 statewide, top 50%, 958 students, 59% FRL); Athens High School (math 29% / reading 38%, grade F, #56 of 305 statewide, top 18%, 1,173 students, 51% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.2%/yr); 886 active listings in the ZIP; 23 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 110d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 65% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 494 units permitted in Limestone County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 43% of the median local income ($57k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Limestone County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 122 days — a 12% lower offer ($232k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $14k (5%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $205,284 (22.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 122 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 22% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.78% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.37%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.29%
• DSCR: 0.85
• GRM: 10.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $289,897
• List price: $263,999
• Delta: -8.93%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
17813 Denham Cir	0.18mi	4/2.5	1,753 (0%)	5mo	$250,000	$143	88
16905 Orleans Dr	0.03mi	4/2.0	1,667 (-5%)	2mo	$263,856	$158	87
16851 Orleans Dr	0.08mi	4/2.0	1,667 (-5%)	4mo	$260,252	$156	82
16811 Orleans Dr	0.12mi	4/2.0	1,667 (-5%)	5mo	$254,752	$153	80
16776 Orleans Dr	0.16mi	4/2.5	1,891 (+8%)	2mo	$284,931	$151	78
17829 Denham Cir	0.18mi	4/2.0	1,667 (-5%)	6mo	$266,700	$160	76
17741 Denham Cir	0.13mi	4/2.5	1,891 (+8%)	9mo	$307,400	$163	74
18048 Longleaf Dr	0.21mi	4/3.0	1,943 (+11%)	9mo	$307,300	$158	62
17745 Quinn Rd	0.20mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,523 (-13%)	8mo	$315,000	$207	55
16341 Lucas Ferry Rd	0.68mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,684 (-4%)	2mo	$387,000	$230	53
17902 Watercress Dr	0.53mi	4/3.0	1,968 (+12%)	4mo	$375,000	$191	50
17537 Windermere Dr	0.66mi	4/2.0	2,013 (+15%)	1mo	$385,000	$191	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.23% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -23.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.20×
• Total profit: $-59,251
• Equity at exit: $39,363

10-year hold

• IRR: -24.5%
• Equity multiple: -0.11×
• Total profit: $-82,319
• Equity at exit: $22,826

Cash invested: $73,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alabama: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Right-to-evict in 7 days for non-payment; no rent control; preempted statewide; courts move quickly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 33 active · 19 under contract
• Months of supply: 7.9 mo (13%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $281,250 ($169/sqft)
• Median days on market: 175 d
• This list price: 39% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: -2.0% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 35611

• Rents YoY: 1.2%
• Active inventory: 886
• Price-to-rent: 10.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,053 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,384
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$330 /mo · $3,960/yr
• Insurance: −$110
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$431
• Net cashflow: $-203

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,309

Max offer price $234,669

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-20	-5% $-111	+0% $-203	+5% $-294	+10% $-385
Rent	-10% $-365	-5% $-284	+0% $-203	+5% $-122	+10% $-41
Rate	-1.0pp $-70	-0.5pp $-136	base $-203	+0.5pp $-271	+1.0pp $-341

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $66,000
• Closing costs: $7,920
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 23 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
16917 Orleans Dr Unit 32 Athens, AL	3.0	2.0	1474	$1,900	$1.29	110d	1	0.04mi
16891 Orleans Dr Unit 30 Athens, AL	4.0	2.5	2323	$2,445	$1.05	110d	1	0.07mi
16862 Orleans Dr Athens, AL	4.0	2.5	1891	$1,950	$1.03	0d	1	0.10mi
16837 Orleans Dr Unit 27 Athens, AL	4.0	2.5	2323	$2,395	$1.03	110d	1	0.12mi
16842 Orleans Dr Athens, AL	4.0	2.0	2070	$1,850	$0.89	0d	1	0.12mi
18072 Longleaf Dr Athens, AL	4.0	3.0	2571	$2,600	$1.01	110d	1	0.20mi
17813 Denham Cir Athens, AL	4.0	3.0	1753	$1,950	$1.11	139d	1	0.21mi
17884 Longleaf Dr Athens, AL	4.0	3.0	2175	$2,100	$0.97	119d	1	0.24mi
17993 Longleaf Dr Athens, AL	4.0	3.0	2226	$2,400	$1.08	110d	1	0.24mi
17969 Longleaf Dr Athens, AL	4.0	3.0	2173	$2,100	$0.97	110d	1	0.25mi
17916 Remington Dr Athens, AL	4.0	2.5	2200	$2,000	$0.91	2d	1	0.40mi
17662 Antlers Pass Athens, AL	3.0	2.0	1600	$1,650	$1.03	139d	1	0.79mi
16541 Aspen Ln Athens, AL	3.0	2.0	1528	$1,900	$1.24	6d	1	0.91mi
16639 Aspen Ln Athens, AL	3.0	2.0	1517	$1,900	$1.25	6d	1	0.98mi
16129 Cohen Dr Athens, AL	4.0	2.5	1995	$2,195	$1.10	0d	1	0.99mi
16129 Cohen Dr Athens, AL	2.0–4.0	2.0–2.5	1650	$1,895	$1.15	110d	9	0.99mi
16097 Cohen Dr Athens, AL	4.0	2.5	1995	$1,895	$0.95	139d	1	1.00mi
16085 Cohen Dr Athens, AL	4.0	2.5	1995	$2,150	$1.08	119d	1	1.01mi
1601 Florence St Athens, AL	3.0	1.0	1260	$1,850	$1.47	139d	1	1.07mi
704 Jackson Dr Athens, AL	3.0	2.0	1639	$1,375	$0.84	6d	1	1.09mi
17524 Martin Dr Athens, AL	3.0	3.0	2600	$2,395	$0.92	110d	1	1.36mi
1003 E Washington St Athens, AL	4.0	3.0	1768	$1,600	$0.90	117d	1	1.36mi
707 Hine St N Athens, AL	3.0	1.5	1400	$1,350	$0.96	1d	1	1.42mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-11
   days on market $263,999 Active 122 DOM
2. 2026-08-10
   days on market $263,999 Active 121 DOM
3. 2026-08-09
   pricedays on marketlisting id $263,999 Active 120 DOM
4. 2026-08-08
   days on market $269,775 Active 131 DOM
5. 2026-08-07
   days on market $269,775 Active 130 DOM
6. 2026-08-06
   days on market $269,775 Active 129 DOM
7. 2026-08-05
   days on market $269,775 Active 128 DOM
8. 2026-08-04
   days on market $269,775 Active 127 DOM
9. 2026-08-03
   days on market $269,775 Active 126 DOM
10. 2026-07-31
    days on market $269,775 Active 123 DOM
11. 2026-07-29
    days on market $269,775 Active 121 DOM
12. 2026-07-27
    days on market $269,775 Active 119 DOM
13. 2026-07-25
    days on market $269,775 Active 117 DOM
14. 2026-07-23
    days on market $269,775 Active 115 DOM
15. 2026-07-22
    days on market $269,775 Active 114 DOM
16. 2026-07-21
    days on market $269,775 Active 113 DOM
17. 2026-07-18
    pricedays on market $269,775 Active 110 DOM
18. 2026-07-16
    days on market $275,500 Active 108 DOM
19. 2026-07-16
    days on market $275,500 Active 107 DOM
20. 2026-07-14
    days on market $275,500 Active 106 DOM
21. 2026-07-14
    days on market $275,500 Active 105 DOM
22. 2026-07-12
    days on market $275,500 Active 104 DOM
23. 2026-07-11
    days on market $275,500 Active 103 DOM
24. 2026-07-10
    days on market $275,500 Active 102 DOM
25. 2026-07-09
    days on market $275,500 Active 101 DOM
26. 2026-07-08
    days on market $275,500 Active 100 DOM
27. 2026-07-07
    days on market $275,500 Active 99 DOM
28. 2026-07-06
    days on market $275,500 Active 98 DOM
29. 2026-07-05
    days on market $275,500 Active 97 DOM
30. 2026-07-04
    days on market $275,500 Active 96 DOM
31. 2026-07-03
    days on market $275,500 Active 95 DOM
32. 2026-07-02
    days on market $275,500 Active 94 DOM
33. 2026-07-01
    days on market $275,500 Active 93 DOM
34. 2026-06-30
    days on market $275,500 Active 92 DOM
35. 2026-06-29
    days on market $275,500 Active 91 DOM
36. 2026-06-28
    days on market $275,500 Active 90 DOM
37. 2026-06-27
    days on market $275,500 Active 88 DOM
38. 2026-06-25
    days on market $275,500 Active 86 DOM
39. 2026-06-23
    days on market $275,500 Active 84 DOM
40. 2026-06-21
    days on market $275,500 Active 83 DOM
41. 2026-06-18
    days on market $275,500 Active 80 DOM
42. 2026-06-17
    days on market $275,500 Active 79 DOM
43. 2026-06-16
    days on market $275,500 Active 78 DOM
44. 2026-06-15
    days on market $275,500 Active 77 DOM
45. 2026-06-14
    days on market $275,500 Active 75 DOM
46. 2026-06-10
    days on market $275,500 Active 72 DOM
47. 2026-06-09
    days on market $275,500 Active 71 DOM
48. 2026-06-08
    days on market $275,500 Active 70 DOM
49. 2026-06-07
    days on market $275,500 Active 69 DOM
50. 2026-06-05
    days on market $275,500 Active 66 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,634
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,788
• − Property taxes: −$3,960
• − Insurance: −$1,320
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,971
• − Management: −$1,971
• − Depreciation: −$7,680
• Taxable loss: −$7,055
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,693
• After-tax cash flow: $-739/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This single-family home is in excellent condition with a modern design and well-maintained exterior. It offers a good investment opportunity with potential for both resale and rental value through minor updates.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior brick — Enhances curb appeal and can increase both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and can increase both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both Updating window treatments — Modernizes the interior and can increase both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both Adding smart home features — Improves convenience and can increase both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both Upgrading appliances — Modernizes the kitchen and can increase both resale and rental value. ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 35/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary James L Cowart Elementary School F AL #213/627 Nat'l #17,861/41,679 Middle Athens Middle School F AL #121/257 Nat'l #8,861/14,009 High Athens High School F AL #56/305 Nat'l #10,191/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Athens City
• NCES district ID: 0100120
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -23.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $45,479
• Composite: 33.14/100
• National rank: #5555
• State rank: #29 of 129 in AL

B Composite livability gradescore 75/100

Livability — Athens

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #18
• US rank: #4019

Category grades

Amenities A- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Athens, AL
• County: Limestone County · 111,441 people
• City population: 55,492
• Metro: Huntsville, AL
• Population (ZIP): 29,969
• Household income: $57,377
• Rent vs Own: 40.4% rent · 59.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 10% of renters

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Population outlook (Limestone County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 111,441 people
• By 2030: 121,272 · +8.8%
• By 2040: 140,705 · +26.3%
• By 2050: 159,069 · +42.7%
• By 2075: 202,231 · +81.5%
• By 2100: 230,608 · +106.9%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (66%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 66% Black 17% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 7% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 7% German/W. Germanic 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Limestone

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+43.9) · D 27.5% · R 71.4% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.0pp toward R · 2008: -41.9pp · 2024: -43.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+43.9 2020: R+42.6 2016: R+49.5 2012: R+43.6 2008: R+41.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -115.98%
• Current HPI: 185.0264
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.23%
• Metro: Huntsville, AL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.94%
• F500 in state: 4

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$8B
▸Healthcare	1	$5B

Price history

+0.2% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-01 Price Changed $278,600 VMLS
• 2026-04-23 Price Changed $278,600 Zillow
• 2026-04-11 Listed $278,100 Zillow
• 2026-03-30 Listed $278,100 VMLS