170 Hillsdale St

Bardwell, KY 42023

$125,000D+

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,585 sqft · Built 1973 · SingleFamily · Active · 27 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,106/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$656
• Tax + insurance: −$208
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$232
• Net cashflow: $10/mo
• Annual: $121/yr
• Cap rate: 6.39%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.35%
• DSCR: 1.02
• 1% rule: 0.89%
• Cash to close: $35,000

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $125k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $10 ($121/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $111k (11.5% below list).
• It's been on market 27 days — a 2% lower offer ($123k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $111k (11.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $12k of equity ($864 loan paydown + $11k appreciation (8.6% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#306 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment D-.
• Carlisle County (rural): math 34% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #59 of 165 in KY (top 36%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Carlisle County Elementary School (math 42% / reading 42%, grade F, #178 of 676 statewide, top 29%, 409 students, 66% FRL); Carlisle County Middle School (math 27% / reading 42%, grade F, #99 of 217 statewide, top 47%, 146 students, 58% FRL); Carlisle County High School (math 24% / reading 34%, grade F, #127 of 254 statewide, top 58%, 204 students, 56% FRL).
• Market conditions: 10 active listings in the ZIP.
• Carlisle County population projected at -18% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (8.6% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $35k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$40k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.