170 Hillsdale St · Bardwell, KY 42023

$125,000

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,585 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 27 Days on market

Built 1973 0.31 ac lot Est $122k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.7/30.0
• Appreciation +9.3/10.0
• ARV discount +6.4/15.0
• DSCR +4.2/10.0
• 1% rule +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Opportunity knocks with this move-in ready 3BR/2.5BA home! A great option for first-time buyers wanting to create value over time or investors looking for their next profitable flip. Solid home, great potential, and ready for its next chapter.

Key facts

• 0.31 acre lot
• Parking
• Built 1973

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Carport (1 space); Paved parking
• Security: Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Natural gas available
• Home design: Single-family residence; Residential property
• Construction: Shingle roof
• Exterior features: Covered patio/porch; Deck; Outbuilding

Interior

• Flooring: Carpet; Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Natural gas heat; Central air; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $125k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $10 ($121/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $111k (11.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $111k (11.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#306 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment D-.
• Carlisle County (rural): math 34% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #59 of 165 in KY (top 36%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Carlisle County Elementary School (math 42% / reading 42%, grade F, #178 of 676 statewide, top 29%, 409 students, 66% FRL); Carlisle County Middle School (math 27% / reading 42%, grade F, #99 of 217 statewide, top 47%, 146 students, 58% FRL); Carlisle County High School (math 24% / reading 34%, grade F, #127 of 254 statewide, top 58%, 204 students, 56% FRL).
• Market conditions: 10 active listings in the ZIP.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $12k of equity ($864 loan paydown + $11k appreciation (8.6% local appreciation)).
• Carlisle County population projected at -18% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (8.6% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $35k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$40k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 27 days — a 2% lower offer ($123k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $110,629 (11.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.89% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.39%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.35%
• DSCR: 1.02
• GRM: 9.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $122,045
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
170 Hillsdale St	0.00mi	3/2.5	1,585 (0%)	0mo	$122,000	$77	100

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

8.58% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 21.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.62×
• Total profit: $56,814
• Equity at exit: $99,923

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.7%
• Equity multiple: 5.71×
• Total profit: $164,750
• Equity at exit: $203,270

Cash invested: $35,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 42023

• Home prices YoY: 4.1%
• Active inventory: 10
• Price-to-rent: 9.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,106 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$656
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$156 /mo · $1,875/yr
• Insurance: −$52
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$232
• Net cashflow: $10

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,093

Max offer price $125,000

Occupancy floor 94%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,250
• Closing costs: $3,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-06-08
   days on market $125,000 Active 27 DOM
2. 2026-06-07
   days on market $125,000 Active 26 DOM
3. 2026-06-05
   days on market $125,000 Active 23 DOM
4. 2026-06-03
   days on market $125,000 Active 22 DOM
5. 2026-06-02
   days on market $125,000 Active 21 DOM
6. 2026-06-01
   days on market $125,000 Active 20 DOM
7. 2026-05-31
   days on market $125,000 Active 19 DOM
8. 2026-05-30
   days on market $125,000 Active 18 DOM
9. 2026-05-12
   listed $125,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 8% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,275
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,002
• − Property taxes: −$1,875
• − Insurance: −$625
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,062
• − Management: −$1,062
• − Depreciation: −$3,636
• Taxable loss: −$1,987
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$477
• After-tax cash flow: $598/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Carlisle County
• NCES district ID: 2100960
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -14.00%
• Median HH income: $37,978
• Composite: 30.43/100
• National rank: #6236
• State rank: #59 of 165 in KY

Livability — Bardwell

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #306
• US rank: #14557

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Bardwell, KY
• Population (ZIP): 2,572

Population outlook (Carlisle County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 4,537 people
• By 2030: 4,341 · -4.3%
• By 2040: 4,003 · -11.8%
• By 2050: 3,736 · -17.7%
• By 2075: 3,405 · -25.0%
• By 2100: 3,264 · -28.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (92%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 92% Two or more races 5% Black 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Iranian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 1%
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Carlisle

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+68.0) · D 15.6% · R 83.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -36.6pp toward R · 2008: -31.3pp · 2024: -68.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+68.0 2020: R+64.3 2016: R+64.0 2012: R+41.4 2008: R+31.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 8.58%
• Current HPI: 216.2089
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Listed $125,000 WKRMLS

Property tax history

-13.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $94 · -24.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.