21 Middlesex Ave #305

Worcester, MA 01604

$215,000D

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 725 sqft · Built 1925 · Condo · Active · 66 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,061/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,127
• Tax + insurance: −$213
• HOA: −$409
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$433
• Net cashflow: $-121/mo
• Annual: $-1,455/yr
• Cap rate: 5.62%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.42%
• DSCR: 0.89
• 1% rule: 0.96%
• Cash to close: $60,200

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $215k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-121 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $194k (10.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $206k (4.2% below list).
• It's been on market 66 days — a 6% lower offer ($202k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $194k (10.0% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 87/100 on livability (#9 in MA, #312 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, amenities A+, commute A+; Watch: cost of living D.
• Worcester (urban): math 17% / reading 30% proficiency, ranked #280 of 302 in MA (top 93%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 66% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Chandler Magnet (math 12% / reading 17%, grade F, #873 of 938 statewide, top 94%, 402 students, 0% FRL); Worcester East Middle (math 9% / reading 14%, grade F, #286 of 305 statewide, top 95%, 740 students, 0% FRL); North High (math 10% / reading 28%, grade F, #313 of 343 statewide, top 92%, 1,377 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 66% district-wide (66 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Watch-outs: built in 1925 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.2%/yr); 65 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 73% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 2,293 units permitted in Worcester County in 2024 (1,205 in 5+ unit buildings).
• 2 sale attempts since 28y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $54k; list at $215k implies a 302% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.6% vs local median 4.1% in Worcester — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($74k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 66 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 10% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1925 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?