21 Middlesex Ave #305 · Worcester, MA 01604

$215,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 725 sqft · Condo public records · 66 Days on market

Built 1925 $297/sqft · 15% below area Est $252k · 15% under $409/mo HOA · 20% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +14.0/15.0
• Cash flow +10.2/30.0
• 1% rule +4.6/10.0
• Livability +4.4/5.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• DSCR +2.9/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to Grafton Hill in Worcester! This beautifully renovated low-rise condo offers a fresh, modern feel with an inviting open layout perfect for everyday living and entertaining. The bright living room features gleaming hardwood floors, seamlessly flowing into a kitchen with dining area, complete with stainless steel appliances! Two comfortable bedrooms and a stylish full bath provide just the right amount of space, while in-unit laundry and central air add everyday convenience. Enjoy the ease of assigned and common parking, along with the added bonus of low-maintenance living—no exterior upkeep to worry about. Ideally located just moments from Quinsigamond Lake State Park, offering easy access to outdoor recreation and scenic views.

Key facts

• In-unit laundry
• Open layout
• Central air

Tags

• RENOVATED LOW-RISE CONDO
• OPEN LAYOUT
• HARDWOOD FLOORS
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• IN-UNIT LAUNDRY
• CENTRAL AIR

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $215k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-121 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $194k (10.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $206k (4.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $194k (10.0% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 5.6% vs local median 4.1% in Worcester — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 87/100 on livability (#9 in MA, #312 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, amenities A+, commute A+; Watch: cost of living D.
• Worcester (urban): math 17% / reading 30% proficiency, ranked #280 of 302 in MA (top 93%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 66% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Chandler Magnet (math 12% / reading 17%, grade F, #873 of 938 statewide, top 94%, 402 students, 0% FRL); Worcester East Middle (math 9% / reading 14%, grade F, #286 of 305 statewide, top 95%, 740 students, 0% FRL); North High (math 10% / reading 28%, grade F, #313 of 343 statewide, top 92%, 1,377 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 66% district-wide (66 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.2%/yr); 65 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 73% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 2,293 units permitted in Worcester County in 2024 (1,205 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($74k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 66 days — a 6% lower offer ($202k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 28y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $54k; list at $215k implies a 302% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1925 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $193,585 (10.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 66 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 10% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1925 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
6. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
7. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.96% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.62%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.42%
• DSCR: 0.89
• GRM: 8.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $251,500
• List price: $215,000
• Delta: -14.51%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.17% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -21.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.27×
• Total profit: $-44,074
• Equity at exit: $32,057

10-year hold

• IRR: -17.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.10×
• Total profit: $-54,425
• Equity at exit: $18,589

Cash invested: $60,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 20 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State Massachusetts: 20 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Cambridge / Boston historically rent-controlled (preempted 1994 but consideration ongoing); strong tenant protections; court backlogs.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 01604

• Home prices YoY: -26.9%
• Rents YoY: 2.2%
• Active inventory: 65
• Price-to-rent: 8.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,061 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,127
• Tax from tax record: −$123 /mo · $1,476/yr
• Insurance: −$90
• HOA: −$409
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$433
• Net cashflow: $-121

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,214

Max offer price $193,585

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $0	-5% $-60	+0% $-121	+5% $-182	+10% $-243
Rent	-10% $-284	-5% $-203	+0% $-121	+5% $-40	+10% $42
Rate	-1.0pp $-13	-0.5pp $-67	base $-121	+0.5pp $-177	+1.0pp $-234

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $53,750
• Closing costs: $6,450
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 11 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
631 Franklin St Worcester, MA	2.0	1.0	750	$2,388	$3.18	16d	5	1.01mi
29 Duncannon Ave Worcester, MA	1.0–2.0	1.0	800	$2,440	$3.05	16d	24	1.03mi
383 Shrewsbury St Worcester, MA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	895	$2,895	$3.23	16d	3	1.17mi
70 Shrewsbury Green Dr Unit K Shrewsbury, MA	1.0	1.0	700	$1,800	$2.57	45d	1	1.18mi
66 Shrewsbury Green Dr Unit J Shrewsbury, MA	1.0	1.0	685	$1,800	$2.63	45d	1	1.21mi
46 Shrewsbury Green Dr Unit B Shrewsbury, MA	1.0	1.0	675	$1,725	$2.56	45d	1	1.23mi
42 Shrewsbury Green Dr Unit F Shrewsbury, MA	1.0	1.0	685	$1,750	$2.55	45d	1	1.24mi
54 Shrewsbury Green Dr Unit L Shrewsbury, MA	1.0	1.0	685	$1,800	$2.63	45d	1	1.24mi
52J Shrewsbury Green Dr Unit 52J Shrewsbury, MA	1.0	1.0	685	$2,000	$2.92	45d	1	1.24mi
12 Shrewsbury Green Dr Unit G Shrewsbury, MA	1.0	1.0	685	$1,800	$2.63	45d	1	1.26mi
36 Shrewsbury Green Dr Unit G Shrewsbury, MA	1.0	1.0	655	$1,800	$2.75	45d	1	1.29mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $409 · $4,908/yr
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $215,000 Active 66 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $215,000 Active 63 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $215,000 Active 62 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $215,000 Active 61 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $215,000 Active 60 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $215,000 Active 58 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $215,000 Active 55 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $215,000 Active 54 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $215,000 Active 53 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $215,000 Active 52 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $215,000 Active 49 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $215,000 Active 48 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    statusdays on market $215,000 Active 47 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $215,000 Price Changed 46 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $215,000 Price Changed 45 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    pricestatusdays on market $215,000 Price Changed 44 DOM
17. 2026-04-16
    listed $220,000 New 753-char remark

    Show marketing remark (753 chars)

    Welcome to Grafton Hill in Worcester! This beautifully renovated low-rise condo offers a fresh, modern feel with an inviting open layout perfect for everyday living and entertaining. The bright living room features gleaming hardwood floors, seamlessly flowing into a kitchen with dining area, complete with stainless steel appliances! Two comfortable bedrooms and a stylish full bath provide just the right amount of space, while in-unit laundry and central air add everyday convenience. Enjoy the ease of assigned and common parking, along with the added bonus of low-maintenance living—no exterior upkeep to worry about. Ideally located just moments from Quinsigamond Lake State Park, offering easy access to outdoor recreation and scenic views.

18. 1999-02-12
    soldstatus $53,500 179-char remark

    Show marketing remark (179 chars)

    MIDDLESEX SCHOOL CONDO BUILDING. MINT ! HARDWOODS AND CERAMIC FLOORS IN LIV/DIN RM. OAK KITCHEN. CENTRAL AC LOW CONDO FEE WITH OWNERS IN CHARGE. PLENTY OF STORAGE. DEEDED PARKING

19. 1999-02-02
    soldstatus $53,400
20. 1998-12-09
    historical 179-char remark

    Show marketing remark (179 chars)

    MIDDLESEX SCHOOL CONDO BUILDING. MINT ! HARDWOODS AND CERAMIC FLOORS IN LIV/DIN RM. OAK KITCHEN. CENTRAL AC LOW CONDO FEE WITH OWNERS IN CHARGE. PLENTY OF STORAGE. DEEDED PARKING

21. 1998-11-16
    listed $54,900 179-char remark

    Show marketing remark (179 chars)

    MIDDLESEX SCHOOL CONDO BUILDING. MINT ! HARDWOODS AND CERAMIC FLOORS IN LIV/DIN RM. OAK KITCHEN. CENTRAL AC LOW CONDO FEE WITH OWNERS IN CHARGE. PLENTY OF STORAGE. DEEDED PARKING

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,476 · $123/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,060 · $172/mo
• Expected delta: +$584/yr (+$49/mo · 39.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥94°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,727
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,043
• − Property taxes: −$1,476
• − Insurance: −$1,075
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,978
• − Management: −$1,978
• − HOA: −$4,908
• − Depreciation: −$6,255
• Taxable loss: −$4,986
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,197
• After-tax cash flow: $-258/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Worcester
• NCES district ID: 2513230
• Math proficiency: 17% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 30% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $45,063
• Composite: 20.3/100
• National rank: #8615
• State rank: #280 of 302 in MA

Livability — Worcester

• Score: 87/100
• State rank: #9
• US rank: #312

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living D Crime A+ Employment C Housing A- Health & safety A+ User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Worcester, MA
• County: Worcester County · 487,911 people
• City population: 207,324
• Metro: Worcester, MA-CT
• Population (ZIP): 39,812
• Household income: $73,505
• Rent vs Own: 55.9% rent · 44.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 2232.0

Population outlook (Worcester County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 850,858 people
• By 2030: 860,403 · +1.1%
• By 2040: 869,902 · +2.2%
• By 2050: 869,110 · +2.1%
• By 2075: 870,120 · +2.3%
• By 2100: 829,703 · -2.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.68)
• Race & ethnicity: White 51% Hispanic / Latino 19% Black 14% Two or more races 12% Asian 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 10% Dominican 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 6% Estonian 6% Romanian 4%
• Foreign-born: 27% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 62% English-only · Spanish 13% Other Indo-European 10% Vietnamese 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Worcester

• 2024 margin: D (+10.0) · D 53.9% · R 43.9% · Other 2.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.8pp toward R · 2008: 13.8pp · 2024: 10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+10.0 2020: D+17.8 2016: D+10.5 2012: D+9.2 2008: D+13.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -108.38%
• Current HPI: 295.03
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.17%
• Metro: Worcester, MA-CT
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.28%
• F500 in state: 38

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	3	$17B
▸Insurance	2	$84B
▸Retail	2	$76B
▸Life Sciences	1	$43B
▸Energy Technology	1	$31B
▸Aerospace / Defense	1	$18B

Price history

+300.7% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-16 Listed $220,000 MLS PIN
• 1999-02-12 Sold (MLS) $53,500 MLS PIN
• 1999-02-02 Sold (Public Records) $53,400 Public Records
• 1998-12-09 Listing Removed — MLS PIN
• 1998-11-16 Listed $54,900 MLS PIN

Property tax history

+0.1%/yr

Latest (2023): $1,476 · -6.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.