19225 N Cave Creek Rd #40

Phoenix, AZ 85024

$15,500C-

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 720 sqft · Built 1966 · Manufactured · Active · 45 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,868/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$81
• Tax + insurance: −$26
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$392
• Net cashflow: $1,369/mo
• Annual: $16,427/yr
• Cap rate: 112.27%
• Cash-on-cash: 378.51%
• DSCR: 17.84
• 1% rule: 12.05%
• Cash to close: $4,340

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath manufactured listed at $16k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($16k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $16k).
• It's been on market 45 days — a 3% lower offer ($15k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $15k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $107 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $465 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#16 in AZ, #3,924 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, crime F.
• Paradise Valley Unified District (4241) (urban): math 39% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #56 of 249 in AZ (top 22%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Eagle Ridge Elementary School (math 25% / reading 30%, grade F, #592 of 1,109 statewide, top 54%, 374 students, 61% FRL); Mountain Trail Middle School (math 33% / reading 41%, grade F, #57 of 218 statewide, top 27%, 680 students, 24% FRL); Pinnacle High School (math 49% / reading 54%, grade D+, #35 of 381 statewide, top 9%, 2,479 students, 8% FRL) — zoned schools at 31% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.4%/yr); 206 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 3d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 3 sale attempts since 5y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $2k (11%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $6k; list at $16k implies a 158% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.4% rent growth), your $4k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 5→14/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 112.3% vs local median 3.3% in Phoenix — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 45 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1966 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.