19225 N Cave Creek Rd #40 · Phoenix, AZ 85024

$15,500

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 720 sqft · Manufactured · 45 Days on market

Built 1966 4,000 sqft lot $22/sqft · 40% below area Est $26k · 40% under ↓ 26% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

55+ Community Living! Discover this charming home right next to Paradise Valleyconveniently close to everything! This 2-bedroom, 1-bathroom home maintains its vintage appeal while offering modern comfort. Enjoy a spacious private patio, covered parking, and abundant built-ins. Located in the heart of the community, you'll have access to fantastic amenities, including a heated pool, changing room with a shower, fitness center, billiards room, and a community center. Rent includes water, sewer, trash, and all amenities. Join a warm, welcoming neighborhood with friendly residents and regular community gatherings! Just blocks from the freeway and Costco. Qualification Requirements. Buyer to verify schools

Key facts

• Newer ac
• Spa
• New flooring

Tags

• NEWER AC
• NEW FLOORING
• WORKOUT FACILITY
• HEATED POOL
• SPA
• CLOSE TO SHOPPING

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Land lease (monthly); Monthly land lease: $871; Association covers sewer, trash, and water; Community amenities: pool, gated access, community spa (heated), fitness center

Exterior

• Parking: 2 open parking spaces; 1 covered parking space; 1 carport space
• Security: Gated community
• Utilities: City water; Public sewer
• Home design: Manufactured/Mobile home; Fee simple ownership
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Steel frame construction; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Gravel/stone front yard; Gravel/stone back yard; Heated spa (community)

Interior

• Kitchen: Refrigerator; Dishwasher; Garbage disposal
• Bedrooms: 2 possible bedrooms
• Flooring: Laminate
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Natural gas heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen
• Laundry & utility: Community laundry (coin-operated)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath manufactured listed at $16k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($16k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $16k).
• Recommended offer: $15k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 112.3% vs local median 3.3% in Phoenix — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#16 in AZ, #3,924 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, crime F.
• Paradise Valley Unified District (4241) (urban): math 39% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #56 of 249 in AZ (top 22%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Eagle Ridge Elementary School (math 25% / reading 30%, grade F, #592 of 1,109 statewide, top 54%, 374 students, 61% FRL); Mountain Trail Middle School (math 33% / reading 41%, grade F, #57 of 218 statewide, top 27%, 680 students, 24% FRL); Pinnacle High School (math 49% / reading 54%, grade D+, #35 of 381 statewide, top 9%, 2,479 students, 8% FRL) — zoned schools at 31% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.4%/yr); 206 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 2d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $107 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $465 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.4% rent growth), your $4k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 45 days — a 3% lower offer ($15k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 5y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $2k (11%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $6k; list at $16k implies a 158% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 5→14/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $15,035 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 45 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1966 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 12.05% ✓
• Cap rate: 112.27%
• Cash-on-cash: 378.51%
• DSCR: 17.84
• GRM: 0.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $26,016
• List price: $15,500
• Delta: -40.42%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 5 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2619 E Oraibi Dr	0.21mi	3/2.0 (+1)	730 (+1%)	1mo	$125,000	$171	80
19225 N Cave Creek Rd N #61	0.14mi	2/1.5	758 (+5%)	12mo	$11,000	$15	75
2502 E Cowan Cir	0.32mi	1/1.0 (-1)	750 (+4%)	14mo	$169,900	$227	59
2701 E Utopia Rd #3	0.15mi	1/1.0 (-1)	644 (-11%)	13mo	$36,000	$56	57
19602 N 32nd St #62	0.66mi	2/2.0	784 (+9%)	13mo	$65,000	$83	41
19602 N 32nd St #24	0.66mi	2/2.0	800 (+11%)	10mo	$62,000	$78	41
2120 E Bluefield Ave #141	0.71mi	1/1.0 (-1)	768 (+7%)	13mo	$45,000	$59	38
19602 N 32 St #78	0.66mi	2/2.0	792 (+10%)	19mo	$50,000	$63	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.44% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 19.85×
• Total profit: $81,816
• Equity at exit: $2,311

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 40.66×
• Total profit: $172,142
• Equity at exit: $1,340

Cash invested: $4,340 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85024

• Home prices YoY: -21.0%
• Rents YoY: 1.4%
• Active inventory: 206
• Price-to-rent: 0.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,868 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$81
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$19 /mo · $232/yr
• Insurance: −$6
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$392
• Net cashflow: $1,369

Break-even live

Break-even rent $136

Max offer price $15,500

Occupancy floor 22%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,380	-5% $1,374	+0% $1,369	+5% $1,364	+10% $1,358
Rent	-10% $1,221	-5% $1,295	+0% $1,369	+5% $1,443	+10% $1,517
Rate	-1.0pp $1,377	-0.5pp $1,373	base $1,369	+0.5pp $1,365	+1.0pp $1,361

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $3,875
• Closing costs: $465
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 12 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
19635 N Cave Creek Rd Phoenix, AZ	3.0	1.0–2.0	999	$1,643	$1.64	0d	20	0.35mi
18660 N Cave Creek Rd Phoenix, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	961	$1,590	$1.65	0d	11	0.43mi
2500 E Marco Polo Rd Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0–2.0	918	$2,390	$2.60	3d	16	0.47mi
18416 N Cave Creek Rd Unit 6 Phoenix, AZ	1.0	1.0	748	$1,250	$1.67	8d	1	0.56mi
20050 N Cave Creek Rd Phoenix, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	909	$1,770	$1.95	2d	10	0.57mi
18416 N Cave Creek Rd Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0–2.0	786	$3,000	$3.81	5d	9	0.58mi
18416 N Cave Creek Rd Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0–2.0	786	$3,000	$3.81	0d	8	0.58mi
2311 E Union Hills Dr Phoenix, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	835	$1,681	$2.01	0d	11	0.61mi
18202 N Cave Creek Rd Phoenix, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	722	$1,148	$1.59	5d	7	0.70mi
2220 E Beardsley Rd Phoenix, AZ	4.0	1.0–2.0	855	$1,669	$1.95	0d	64	0.76mi
2077 E Charleston Ave Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0	720	$1,295	$1.80	25d	1	0.98mi
17602 N Cave Creek Rd Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0–2.0	650	$1,625	$2.50	0d	11	1.05mi

Listing history 25 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $15,500 Active 45 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $15,500 Active 42 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $15,500 Active 41 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $15,500 Active 40 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $15,500 Active 39 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $15,500 Active 37 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $15,500 Active 36 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $15,500 Active 33 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $15,500 Active 32 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $15,500 Active 31 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    pricedays on market $15,500 Active 28 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $17,500 Active 27 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $17,500 Active 26 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $17,500 Active 25 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $17,500 Active 24 DOM
16. 2026-05-07
    listed $17,500 Active 501-char remark
17. 2025-06-02
    soldstatus $6,000 Closed 722-char remark

    Show marketing remark (722 chars)

    55+ Community Living! Discover this charming home right next to Paradise Valleyconveniently close to everything! This 2-bedroom, 1-bathroom home maintains its vintage appeal while offering modern comfort. Enjoy a spacious private patio, covered parking, and abundant built-ins. Located in the heart of the community, you'll have access to fantastic amenities, including a heated pool, changing room with a shower, fitness center, billiards room, and a community center. Rent includes water, sewer, trash, and all amenities. Join a warm, welcoming neighborhood with friendly residents and regular community gatherings! Just blocks from the freeway and Costco. Qualification Requirements. Buyer to verify schools

18. 2025-05-25
    status Pending 722-char remark

    Show marketing remark (722 chars)

    55+ Community Living! Discover this charming home right next to Paradise Valleyconveniently close to everything! This 2-bedroom, 1-bathroom home maintains its vintage appeal while offering modern comfort. Enjoy a spacious private patio, covered parking, and abundant built-ins. Located in the heart of the community, you'll have access to fantastic amenities, including a heated pool, changing room with a shower, fitness center, billiards room, and a community center. Rent includes water, sewer, trash, and all amenities. Join a warm, welcoming neighborhood with friendly residents and regular community gatherings! Just blocks from the freeway and Costco. Qualification Requirements. Buyer to verify schools

19. 2025-05-06
    price $10,000 722-char remark

    Show marketing remark (722 chars)

    55+ Community Living! Discover this charming home right next to Paradise Valleyconveniently close to everything! This 2-bedroom, 1-bathroom home maintains its vintage appeal while offering modern comfort. Enjoy a spacious private patio, covered parking, and abundant built-ins. Located in the heart of the community, you'll have access to fantastic amenities, including a heated pool, changing room with a shower, fitness center, billiards room, and a community center. Rent includes water, sewer, trash, and all amenities. Join a warm, welcoming neighborhood with friendly residents and regular community gatherings! Just blocks from the freeway and Costco. Qualification Requirements. Buyer to verify schools

20. 2025-04-16
    price $20,000 722-char remark

    Show marketing remark (722 chars)

    55+ Community Living! Discover this charming home right next to Paradise Valleyconveniently close to everything! This 2-bedroom, 1-bathroom home maintains its vintage appeal while offering modern comfort. Enjoy a spacious private patio, covered parking, and abundant built-ins. Located in the heart of the community, you'll have access to fantastic amenities, including a heated pool, changing room with a shower, fitness center, billiards room, and a community center. Rent includes water, sewer, trash, and all amenities. Join a warm, welcoming neighborhood with friendly residents and regular community gatherings! Just blocks from the freeway and Costco. Qualification Requirements. Buyer to verify schools

21. 2025-04-03
    price $24,000 722-char remark

    Show marketing remark (722 chars)

    55+ Community Living! Discover this charming home right next to Paradise Valleyconveniently close to everything! This 2-bedroom, 1-bathroom home maintains its vintage appeal while offering modern comfort. Enjoy a spacious private patio, covered parking, and abundant built-ins. Located in the heart of the community, you'll have access to fantastic amenities, including a heated pool, changing room with a shower, fitness center, billiards room, and a community center. Rent includes water, sewer, trash, and all amenities. Join a warm, welcoming neighborhood with friendly residents and regular community gatherings! Just blocks from the freeway and Costco. Qualification Requirements. Buyer to verify schools

22. 2025-03-25
    price $28,000 722-char remark

    Show marketing remark (722 chars)

    55+ Community Living! Discover this charming home right next to Paradise Valleyconveniently close to everything! This 2-bedroom, 1-bathroom home maintains its vintage appeal while offering modern comfort. Enjoy a spacious private patio, covered parking, and abundant built-ins. Located in the heart of the community, you'll have access to fantastic amenities, including a heated pool, changing room with a shower, fitness center, billiards room, and a community center. Rent includes water, sewer, trash, and all amenities. Join a warm, welcoming neighborhood with friendly residents and regular community gatherings! Just blocks from the freeway and Costco. Qualification Requirements. Buyer to verify schools

23. 2025-02-25
    listed $32,000 Active 722-char remark

    Show marketing remark (722 chars)

    55+ Community Living! Discover this charming home right next to Paradise Valleyconveniently close to everything! This 2-bedroom, 1-bathroom home maintains its vintage appeal while offering modern comfort. Enjoy a spacious private patio, covered parking, and abundant built-ins. Located in the heart of the community, you'll have access to fantastic amenities, including a heated pool, changing room with a shower, fitness center, billiards room, and a community center. Rent includes water, sewer, trash, and all amenities. Join a warm, welcoming neighborhood with friendly residents and regular community gatherings! Just blocks from the freeway and Costco. Qualification Requirements. Buyer to verify schools

24. 2021-06-08
    historical
25. 2021-05-03
    listed $21,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 5 d/yr ≥110°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,421
• − Mortgage interest: −$868
• − Property taxes: −$232
• − Insurance: −$78
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,794
• − Management: −$1,794
• − Depreciation: −$451
• Taxable income: $17,204
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$4,129
• After-tax cash flow: $12,298/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Paradise Valley Unified District (4241)
• NCES district ID: 0405930
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $64,106
• Composite: 37.89/100
• National rank: #4316
• State rank: #56 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Phoenix

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #16
• US rank: #3924

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living B- Crime F Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Phoenix, AZ
• County: Maricopa County · 4,537,380 people
• City population: 1,500,198
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 26,199
• Household income: $106,724
• Rent vs Own: 34.1% rent · 65.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 547.0

Population outlook (Maricopa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 4,979,203 people
• By 2030: 5,378,229 · +8.0%
• By 2040: 6,156,598 · +23.6%
• By 2050: 6,872,376 · +38.0%
• By 2075: 8,401,270 · +68.7%
• By 2100: 9,247,439 · +85.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (71%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 71% Hispanic / Latino 16% Two or more races 12% Asian 6% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 13% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Italian 3% Portuguese 3%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, China, South Korea
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 10% Other Indo-European 4% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Maricopa

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.1pp toward D · 2008: -10.6pp · 2024: -3.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+3.5 2012: R+12.0 2008: R+10.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -82.95%
• Current HPI: 312.7238
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.44%
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

-26.2% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-03 Price Changed $15,500 ARMLS
• 2026-05-07 Listed $17,500 ARMLS
• 2025-06-02 Sold (MLS) $6,000 ARMLS
• 2025-05-25 Pending — ARMLS
• 2025-05-06 Price Changed $10,000 ARMLS
• 2025-04-16 Price Changed $20,000 ARMLS
• 2025-04-03 Price Changed $24,000 ARMLS
• 2025-03-25 Price Changed $28,000 ARMLS
• 2025-02-25 Listed $32,000 ARMLS
• 2021-06-08 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2021-05-03 Listed $21,000 ARMLS