926 Mountain View Rd

Johnson City, TN 37601

$225,200F

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,025 sqft · Built 1966 · SingleFamily · Pending · 3 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,338/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,181
• Tax + insurance: −$180
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$281
• Net cashflow: $-303/mo
• Annual: $-3,639/yr
• Cap rate: 4.68%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.77%
• DSCR: 0.74
• 1% rule: 0.59%
• Cash to close: $63,056

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $225k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-303 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $172k (23.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $134k (40.6% below list).
• Only 3 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $134k (40.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#8 in TN, #3,349 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, health & safety A; Watch: crime D, commute F, employment F.
• Johnson City (urban): math 46% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #9 of 139 in TN (top 6%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Lake Ridge Elementary (math 65% / reading 52%, grade B-, #67 of 952 statewide, top 7%, 627 students, 0% FRL); Indian Trail Middle School (math 48% / reading 43%, grade D+, #28 of 333 statewide, top 8%, 808 students, 0% FRL); Science Hill High School (math 37% / reading 60%, grade D, #13 of 332 statewide, top 4%, 2,401 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 44% district-wide (44 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.9%/yr); 209 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 55% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 1,155 units permitted in Washington County in 2024 (437 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Washington County population projected at +9% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 3 sale attempts since 11y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 4.7% vs local median 3.1% in Johnson City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($51k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Built in 1966 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.