4212 S Walnut Pl

Broken Arrow, OK 74011

$292,000D+

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,610 sqft · Built 1991 · SingleFamily · Active · 22 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,436/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,531
• Tax + insurance: −$387
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$512
• Net cashflow: $7/mo
• Annual: $83/yr
• Cap rate: 6.32%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.10%
• DSCR: 1.00
• 1% rule: 0.83%
• Cash to close: $81,760

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $292k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $7 ($83/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $244k (16.6% below list).
• It's been on market 22 days — a 2% lower offer ($288k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $244k (16.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#7 in OK, #2,691 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D+, amenities F.
• Broken Arrow (suburban): math 23% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #79 of 270 in OK (top 29%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.1%/yr); 381 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 2,818 units permitted in Tulsa County in 2024 (518 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Tulsa County population projected at +30% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Current owner paid $86k; list at $292k implies a 238% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 4.0% in Broken Arrow — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.