4212 S Walnut Pl · Broken Arrow, OK 74011

$292,000

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,610 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 22 Days on market

Built 1991 9,107 sqft lot Est $410k · 29% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +13.4/30.0
• DSCR +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• 1% rule +3.3/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Model Home in Silvertree Neighborhood on a Cul-de-Sac Lot with Sidewalks, Siding and Windows (Burnett), HVAC (Airco), Roof (A-Best) have been replaced. Versatile Floor Plan. Primary Bedroom on First Level with Private Bath Including Double Sinks, Separate Shower and Whirlpool Tub, Living Area High Ceilings with a Wood Burning Fireplace, Formal Dining, Kitchen: Plenty of Cabinets, Breakfast Nook and Pantry, Conveniently Located Guest Bathroom on the First Floor. On Second Level: Spacious Game Room above the Garage, Office or 4th Bedroom, and 2 Bedrooms with Walk-In Closets. 2 Car Garage, Fully Fenced yard, Well Maintained Home. Could Use Some Updates for Flooring and Paint. Priced to Sell! S

Key facts

• Cul-de-sac lot
• Hvac replaced
• Private bath

Tags

• CUL-DE-SAC LOT
• HVAC REPLACED
• ROOF REPLACED
• PRIMARY BEDROOM ON FIRST LEVEL
• PRIVATE BATH
• LIVING AREA HIGH CEILINGS

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Sidewalks; Gutters

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage (2-car)
• Security: Smoke detectors; No safety shelter
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity available; Natural gas available; Cable available; Fiber optic available; High speed internet available; Phone available
• Home design: Faces east; Slab foundation
• Construction: Brick and wood-frame construction; Asphalt/fiberglass roof; Year built per public records
• Exterior features: Concrete driveway; Landscaping; Rain gutters; Covered patio and porch; Porch; Decorative and privacy fencing; Cul-de-sac lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen with breakfast nook and pantry; Dishwasher; Disposal; Microwave; Oven; Range / Stove; Refrigerator; Plumbed for ice maker
• Bedrooms: Master bedroom on the first floor with private bath and walk-in closet; Second-floor bedrooms with walk-in closets; Additional bedroom(s) on second floor
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: Master bathroom with double sink and whirlpool tub; Full bathroom on the second floor with bathtub; First-floor half bathroom (hall)
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas, multiple heating units); Two cooling units
• Interior features: Central vacuum; High ceilings; High speed internet; Laminate counters; Cable TV; Ceiling fans; Electric oven connection; Electric range connection; Programmable thermostat; Vinyl windows; Storm doors; Carpet, tile, and vinyl flooring
• Laundry & utility: Inside utility room (separate); Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Gas dryer hookup; Gas water heater; Tankless water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $292k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $7 ($83/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $244k (16.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $244k (16.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 4.0% in Broken Arrow — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#7 in OK, #2,691 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D+, amenities F.
• Broken Arrow (suburban): math 23% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #79 of 270 in OK (top 29%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.1%/yr); 381 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 2,818 units permitted in Tulsa County in 2024 (518 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Tulsa County population projected at +30% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 22 days — a 2% lower offer ($288k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $86k; list at $292k implies a 238% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $243,642 (16.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.83% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.32%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.10%
• DSCR: 1.00
• GRM: 10.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $409,770
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4305 S Chestnut Ave	0.25mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,469 (-5%)	0mo	$340,000	$138	74
3920 S Elder Blvd	0.46mi	3/2.5	2,486 (-5%)	1mo	$492,295	$198	70
2722 W Roanoke St	0.47mi	3/2.5	2,486 (-5%)	2mo	$494,900	$199	68
3729 S Elder Blvd	0.45mi	3/2.5	2,428 (-7%)	2mo	$448,000	$185	66
2411 W Birmingham Pl	0.40mi	3/2.5	2,875 (+10%)	2mo	$450,000	$157	63
3615 S Fir Ct	0.56mi	3/2.5	2,364 (-9%)	1mo	$430,000	$182	57
3916 S Elder Blvd	0.46mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,841 (+9%)	2mo	$519,900	$183	57
4120 S Juniper Ave	0.60mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,771 (+6%)	3mo	$345,000	$125	53
2508 W Kent St	0.68mi	3/2.5	2,374 (-9%)	2mo	$290,000	$122	52
4009 S Maple Ave	0.53mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,300 (-12%)	2mo	$270,000	$117	49
4632 S Chestnut Ave	0.55mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,280 (-13%)	1mo	$338,000	$148	46
3009 S Aspen Ct	0.74mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,357 (-10%)	3mo	$237,000	$101	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.09% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.46×
• Total profit: $-44,200
• Equity at exit: $43,538

10-year hold

• IRR: -4.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.67×
• Total profit: $-26,691
• Equity at exit: $25,247

Cash invested: $81,760 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Oklahoma: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+20
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day notice; strongly landlord-favorable.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 74011

• Rents YoY: 4.1%
• Active inventory: 381
• Price-to-rent: 10.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,436 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,531
• Tax from tax record: −$265 /mo · $3,179/yr
• Insurance: −$122
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$512
• Net cashflow: $7

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,428

Max offer price $292,000

Occupancy floor 95%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $73,000
• Closing costs: $8,760
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4308 S Walnut Ave Broken Arrow, OK	3.0	2.5	2659	$2,400	$0.90	23d	1	0.12mi
4623 S Chestnut Ave Broken Arrow, OK	4.0	3.0	2023	$3,800	$1.88	19d	1	0.52mi
2614 S Gardenia Ave Broken Arrow, OK	3.0	2.5	2397	$1,950	$0.81	23d	1	1.24mi
2630 W Washington Pl Broken Arrow, OK	4.0	2.0	1867	$1,975	$1.06	23d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $292,000 Active 22 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $292,000 Active 21 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $292,000 Active 20 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $292,000 Active 19 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $292,000 Active 17 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $300,000 Active 14 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $300,000 Active 13 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $300,000 Active 12 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $300,000 Active 11 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $300,000 Active 8 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $300,000 Active 7 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $300,000 Active 6 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $300,000 Active 5 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $300,000 Active 4 DOM
15. 2026-05-26
    listed $300,000 Active
16. 1992-03-30
    soldstatus $86,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OK · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,179 · $265/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,179 · $265/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 4% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,237
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,357
• − Property taxes: −$3,179
• − Insurance: −$1,460
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,339
• − Management: −$2,339
• − Depreciation: −$8,495
• Taxable loss: −$4,931
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,183
• After-tax cash flow: $1,266/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Broken Arrow
• NCES district ID: 4005490
• Math proficiency: 23% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 28% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $64,646
• Composite: 23.86/100
• National rank: #7801
• State rank: #79 of 270 in OK

Livability — Broken Arrow

• Score: 78/100
• State rank: #7
• US rank: #2691

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety C+ User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Broken Arrow, OK
• County: Tulsa County · 640,811 people
• City population: 144,172
• Metro: Tulsa, OK
• Population (ZIP): 33,900
• Household income: $99,157
• Rent vs Own: 21.4% rent · 78.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 389.0

Population outlook (Tulsa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 723,846 people
• By 2030: 766,033 · +5.8%
• By 2040: 851,386 · +17.6%
• By 2050: 938,389 · +29.6%
• By 2075: 1,166,011 · +61.1%
• By 2100: 1,350,277 · +86.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (68%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 68% Two or more races 15% Hispanic / Latino 10% Native American 4% Black 4% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Serbian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Tulsa

• 2024 margin: R (+15.2) · D 41.3% · R 56.5% · Other 2.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.2pp toward D · 2008: -24.5pp · 2024: -15.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+15.2 2020: R+15.6 2016: R+22.9 2012: R+27.4 2008: R+24.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -180.15%
• Current HPI: 210.8302
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.09%
• Metro: Tulsa, OK
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.55%
• F500 in state: 6

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OK)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	3	$48B

Price history

+246.8% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-26 Listed $300,000 MLS Technology, Inc.
• 1992-03-30 Sold (Public Records) $86,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,179 · +4.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.