105 River Rd

Hazard, KY 41701

$110,000B+

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,280 sqft · Built 1940 · Other · Active · 82 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,571/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$577
• Tax + insurance: −$501
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$330
• Net cashflow: $163/mo
• Annual: $1,960/yr
• Cap rate: 12.73%
• Cash-on-cash: 22.98%
• DSCR: 2.02
• 1% rule: 1.43%
• Cash to close: $30,800

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $110k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $163 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $110k).
• It's been on market 82 days — a 6% lower offer ($103k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $103k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $761 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#196 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A; Watch: employment C-, schools D+, amenities F.
• Hazard Independent (town): math 31% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #39 of 165 in KY (top 24%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo; built in 1940 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 56 active listings in the ZIP.
• Perry County population projected at -30% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 12.7% vs local median 4.9% in Hazard — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 82 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1940 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.