105 River Rd · Hazard, KY 41701

$110,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,280 sqft · Other public records · 80 Days on market

Built 1940 7,405 sqft lot $86/sqft · 12% below area Est $160k · 31% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.3/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Cozy ranch in Walkertown section of Hazard. 3 bedroom, 1 bath, another 1/2 bath needs updated. Nice remodeled Kitchen with vaulted ceilings. No FHA, VA financing.

Key facts

• Remodeled kitchen
• Vaulted ceilings
• 7,405 sq ft lot

Tags

• REMODELED KITCHEN
• VAULTED CEILINGS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $110k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $163 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $110k).
• Recommended offer: $103k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 12.7% vs local median 4.9% in Hazard — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#196 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A; Watch: employment C-, schools D+, amenities F.
• Hazard Independent (town): math 31% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #39 of 165 in KY (top 24%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 56 active listings in the ZIP.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $761 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Perry County population projected at -30% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 80 days — a 6% lower offer ($103k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo; built in 1940 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $103,400 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 80 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1940 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.43% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.73%
• Cash-on-cash: 22.98%
• DSCR: 2.02
• GRM: 5.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $160,079
• List price: $110,000
• Delta: -31.28%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -6.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.77×
• Total profit: $-7,201
• Equity at exit: $16,401

10-year hold

• IRR: 3.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.26×
• Total profit: $8,017
• Equity at exit: $9,511

Cash invested: $30,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 41701

• Home prices YoY: -14.4%
• Active inventory: 56
• Price-to-rent: 5.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,571 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$577
• Tax from tax record: −$29 /mo · $345/yr
• Insurance: −$46
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$330
• Net cashflow: $163

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,365

Max offer price $110,000

Occupancy floor 85%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $27,500
• Closing costs: $3,300
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $110,000 Active 80 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $110,000 Active 79 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $110,000 Active 78 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $110,000 Active 77 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $110,000 Active 75 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $110,000 Active 74 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $110,000 Active 71 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $110,000 Active 70 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $110,000 Active 69 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $110,000 Active 68 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $110,000 Active 65 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $110,000 Active 64 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $110,000 Active 63 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $110,000 Active 62 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $110,000 Active 61 DOM
16. 2026-03-31
    listed $110,000 Active 162-char remark

    Show marketing remark (162 chars)

    Cozy ranch in Walkertown section of Hazard. 3 bedroom, 1 bath, another 1/2 bath needs updated. Nice remodeled Kitchen with vaulted ceilings. No FHA, VA financing.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast KY · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $345 · $29/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $946 · $79/mo
• Expected delta: +$601/yr (+$50/mo · 173.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone AE · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,856
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,162
• − Property taxes: −$345
• − Insurance: −$5,668
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,509
• − Management: −$1,509
• − Depreciation: −$3,200
• Taxable income: $464
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$111
• After-tax cash flow: $1,849/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hazard Independent
• NCES district ID: 2102670
• Math proficiency: 31% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $35,115
• Composite: 32.59/100
• National rank: #5676
• State rank: #39 of 165 in KY

Livability — Hazard

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #196
• US rank: #9701

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C- Housing A Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Hazard, KY
• Population (ZIP): 16,646

Population outlook (Perry County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 24,976 people
• By 2030: 23,390 · -6.4%
• By 2040: 20,270 · -18.8%
• By 2050: 17,547 · -29.7%
• By 2075: 12,599 · -49.6%
• By 2100: 9,358 · -62.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (94%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 94% Two or more races 4% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 3% Slovak 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Vietnam
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Perry

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+59.5) · D 19.7% · R 79.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -27.5pp toward R · 2008: -32.0pp · 2024: -59.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+59.5 2020: R+54.3 2016: R+57.0 2012: R+58.5 2008: R+32.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -24.13%
• Current HPI: 143.629
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-03-31 Listed $110,000 EKAR