117 Dobbins Mill Rd

Experiment, GA 30223

$199,900C-

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,562 sqft · Built 1968 · SingleFamily · Under Contract · 26 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,843/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,048
• Tax + insurance: −$188
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$387
• Net cashflow: $220/mo
• Annual: $2,636/yr
• Cap rate: 7.61%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.71%
• DSCR: 1.21
• 1% rule: 0.92%
• Cash to close: $55,972

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $200k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $220 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $184k (7.8% below list).
• It's been on market 26 days — a 2% lower offer ($197k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $184k (7.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#500 in GA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A-, housing A-; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Griffin-Spalding County (suburban): math 13% / reading 19% proficiency, ranked #151 of 174 in GA (top 87%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 68% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.3%/yr); 427 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 342 units permitted in Spalding County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Spalding County population projected at -15% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 34% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 7.6% vs local median 4.3% in Experiment — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($59k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1968 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.