117 Dobbins Mill Rd · Experiment, GA 30223

$199,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,562 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 26 Days on market

Built 1968 0.68 ac lot $128/sqft · 9% below area Est $219k · 9% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.3/30.0
• ARV discount +11.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.1/10.0
• 1% rule +4.2/10.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to this beautifully maintained home at 117 Dobbins Mill Rd in Griffin! Featuring 4 bedrooms and 2.5 baths, this inviting property offers the perfect blend of comfort, space, and functionality. Step inside to discover gorgeous hardwood floors and a bright, open layout designed for modern living. The spacious eat-in kitchen flows seamlessly into the main living area, creating an ideal space for entertaining family and friends. With 1,562 square feet, this home offers well-appointed bedrooms and plenty of room to relax and unwind. Situated on a rare double lot, the outdoor space provides endless possibilities-whether you envision a garden, play area, or future expansion. Enjoy the extra privacy and room to spread out while still being conveniently located near everything Griffin has to offer. Don't miss this great opportunity-schedule your showing today!

Key facts

• Privacy
• Double lot
• Eat-in kitchen

Tags

• HARDWOOD FLOORS
• EAT-IN KITCHEN
• DOUBLE LOT
• OUTDOOR SPACE
• PRIVACY

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $220 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $184k (7.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $184k (7.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.6% vs local median 4.3% in Experiment — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#500 in GA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A-, housing A-; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Griffin-Spalding County (suburban): math 13% / reading 19% proficiency, ranked #151 of 174 in GA (top 87%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 68% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.3%/yr); 427 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 342 units permitted in Spalding County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($59k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Spalding County population projected at -15% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 26 days — a 2% lower offer ($197k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 34% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $184,343 (7.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1968 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.92% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.61%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.71%
• DSCR: 1.21
• GRM: 9.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $219,372
• List price: $199,900
• Delta: -8.88%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
304 Kilgore Rd	0.40mi	3/2.0	1,487 (-5%)	6mo	$245,000	$165	64
107 Vineyard Rd	0.24mi	3/2.0	1,625 (+4%)	20mo	$160,000	$98	62
320 Fawnbrook Cir	0.72mi	3/2.0	1,596 (+2%)	13mo	$228,100	$143	48
411 Fawnbrook Cir	0.75mi	3/2.5	1,436 (-8%)	5mo	$218,500	$152	42
1008 Chester Woods Ct	0.48mi	3/2.0	1,414 (-10%)	21mo	$275,000	$194	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.34% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -8.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.68×
• Total profit: $-17,832
• Equity at exit: $29,806

10-year hold

• IRR: 1.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.09×
• Total profit: $4,850
• Equity at exit: $17,284

Cash invested: $55,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 30223

• Rents YoY: 3.3%
• Active inventory: 427
• Price-to-rent: 9.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,843 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,048
• Tax from tax record: −$105 /mo · $1,261/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$387
• Net cashflow: $220

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,565

Max offer price $199,900

Occupancy floor 83%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,975
• Closing costs: $5,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
118 Dobbins Cir Griffin, GA	3.0	2.0	1400	$2,000	$1.43	5d	1	0.02mi
118 Dobbins Cir Griffin, GA	3.0	2.0	1400	$2,000	$1.43	24d	1	0.02mi
50 Richardson St Griffin, GA	3.0	2.0	1400	$1,900	$1.36	24d	1	0.05mi
310 Sunset Dr Griffin, GA	3.0	1.5	1176	$1,581	$1.34	19d	1	0.63mi

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-05-13
   status Under Contract 871-char remark

   Show marketing remark (871 chars)

   Welcome to this beautifully maintained home at 117 Dobbins Mill Rd in Griffin! Featuring 4 bedrooms and 2.5 baths, this inviting property offers the perfect blend of comfort, space, and functionality. Step inside to discover gorgeous hardwood floors and a bright, open layout designed for modern living. The spacious eat-in kitchen flows seamlessly into the main living area, creating an ideal space for entertaining family and friends. With 1,562 square feet, this home offers well-appointed bedrooms and plenty of room to relax and unwind. Situated on a rare double lot, the outdoor space provides endless possibilities-whether you envision a garden, play area, or future expansion. Enjoy the extra privacy and room to spread out while still being conveniently located near everything Griffin has to offer. Don't miss this great opportunity-schedule your showing today!

2. 2026-05-06
   historical Active Under Contract 871-char remark

   Show marketing remark (871 chars)

   Welcome to this beautifully maintained home at 117 Dobbins Mill Rd in Griffin! Featuring 4 bedrooms and 2.5 baths, this inviting property offers the perfect blend of comfort, space, and functionality. Step inside to discover gorgeous hardwood floors and a bright, open layout designed for modern living. The spacious eat-in kitchen flows seamlessly into the main living area, creating an ideal space for entertaining family and friends. With 1,562 square feet, this home offers well-appointed bedrooms and plenty of room to relax and unwind. Situated on a rare double lot, the outdoor space provides endless possibilities-whether you envision a garden, play area, or future expansion. Enjoy the extra privacy and room to spread out while still being conveniently located near everything Griffin has to offer. Don't miss this great opportunity-schedule your showing today!

3. 2026-04-28
   status Back On Market 871-char remark

   Show marketing remark (871 chars)

   Welcome to this beautifully maintained home at 117 Dobbins Mill Rd in Griffin! Featuring 4 bedrooms and 2.5 baths, this inviting property offers the perfect blend of comfort, space, and functionality. Step inside to discover gorgeous hardwood floors and a bright, open layout designed for modern living. The spacious eat-in kitchen flows seamlessly into the main living area, creating an ideal space for entertaining family and friends. With 1,562 square feet, this home offers well-appointed bedrooms and plenty of room to relax and unwind. Situated on a rare double lot, the outdoor space provides endless possibilities-whether you envision a garden, play area, or future expansion. Enjoy the extra privacy and room to spread out while still being conveniently located near everything Griffin has to offer. Don't miss this great opportunity-schedule your showing today!

4. 2026-04-11
   status Under Contract 871-char remark

   Show marketing remark (871 chars)

   Welcome to this beautifully maintained home at 117 Dobbins Mill Rd in Griffin! Featuring 4 bedrooms and 2.5 baths, this inviting property offers the perfect blend of comfort, space, and functionality. Step inside to discover gorgeous hardwood floors and a bright, open layout designed for modern living. The spacious eat-in kitchen flows seamlessly into the main living area, creating an ideal space for entertaining family and friends. With 1,562 square feet, this home offers well-appointed bedrooms and plenty of room to relax and unwind. Situated on a rare double lot, the outdoor space provides endless possibilities-whether you envision a garden, play area, or future expansion. Enjoy the extra privacy and room to spread out while still being conveniently located near everything Griffin has to offer. Don't miss this great opportunity-schedule your showing today!

5. 2026-03-24
   listed $199,900 New 871-char remark

   Show marketing remark (871 chars)

   Welcome to this beautifully maintained home at 117 Dobbins Mill Rd in Griffin! Featuring 4 bedrooms and 2.5 baths, this inviting property offers the perfect blend of comfort, space, and functionality. Step inside to discover gorgeous hardwood floors and a bright, open layout designed for modern living. The spacious eat-in kitchen flows seamlessly into the main living area, creating an ideal space for entertaining family and friends. With 1,562 square feet, this home offers well-appointed bedrooms and plenty of room to relax and unwind. Situated on a rare double lot, the outdoor space provides endless possibilities-whether you envision a garden, play area, or future expansion. Enjoy the extra privacy and room to spread out while still being conveniently located near everything Griffin has to offer. Don't miss this great opportunity-schedule your showing today!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast GA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,261 · $105/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,839 · $153/mo
• Expected delta: +$578/yr (+$48/mo · 45.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 34% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,121
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,198
• − Property taxes: −$1,261
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,770
• − Management: −$1,770
• − Depreciation: −$5,815
• Taxable loss: −$692
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$166
• After-tax cash flow: $2,802/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Griffin-Spalding County
• NCES district ID: 1302520
• Math proficiency: 13% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 19% ▼ -12.00%
• Median HH income: $40,895
• Composite: 13.71/100
• National rank: #9496
• State rank: #151 of 174 in GA

Livability — Experiment

• Score: 56/100
• State rank: #500
• US rank: #22868

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment F Housing A- Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Spalding County · 66,676 people
• City population: 38,262
• Metro: Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Alpharetta, GA
• Population (ZIP): 38,262
• Household income: $59,054
• Rent vs Own: 39.5% rent · 60.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 1297.0

Population outlook (Spalding County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 63,015 people
• By 2030: 61,689 · -2.1%
• By 2040: 57,932 · -8.1%
• By 2050: 53,474 · -15.1%
• By 2075: 43,228 · -31.4%
• By 2100: 32,290 · -48.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.59)
• Race & ethnicity: White 50% Black 38% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 5% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 6% Korean 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Spalding

• 2024 margin: R (+16.7) · D 41.4% · R 58.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +2.1pp toward D · 2008: -18.8pp · 2024: -16.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+16.7 2020: R+20.8 2016: R+24.2 2012: R+20.0 2008: R+18.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -142.92%
• Current HPI: 225.7933
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.34%
• Metro: Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Alpharetta, GA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
▸Retail	1	$160B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
▸Airlines	1	$62B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$47B
▸Utilities	1	$25B

Price history

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-13 Pending — GAMLS
• 2026-05-06 Contingent — GAMLS
• 2026-04-28 Relisted — GAMLS
• 2026-04-11 Pending — GAMLS
• 2026-03-24 Listed $199,900 GAMLS

Property tax history

+0.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,261 · -1.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.