22 N Lawrence Ave

Elmsford, NY 10523

$299,900C

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,172 sqft · Built 1961 · SingleFamily · Active · 27 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,673/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,573
• Tax + insurance: −$876
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$771
• Net cashflow: $452/mo
• Annual: $5,427/yr
• Cap rate: 8.10%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.46%
• DSCR: 1.29
• 1% rule: 1.22%
• Cash to close: $83,972

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $300k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $452 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $300k).
• It's been on market 27 days — a 2% lower offer ($295k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $295k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#521 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, cost of living F, health & safety F.
• Elmsford Union Free School District (suburban): math 38% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #397 of 590 in NY (top 67%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Alice E Grady Elementary School (math 27% / reading 57%, grade F, #1,361 of 2,108 statewide, top 67%, 383 students, 0% FRL); Alexander Hamilton High School (math 52% / reading 47%, grade D, #974 of 1,100 statewide, top 91%, 485 students, 53% FRL).
• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.0% of price.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.1%/yr); 16 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 19d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 954 units permitted in Westchester County in 2024 (649 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Westchester County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 3 sale attempts since 20y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $126k; list at $300k implies a 138% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 5.1% rent growth), your $84k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→14/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($118k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1961 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.