22 N Lawrence Ave · Elmsford, NY 10523

$299,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,172 sqft · SingleFamily · 27 Days on market

Built 1961 7,405 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.5/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +7.2/10.0
• DSCR +6.9/10.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Rent growth +3.8/5.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to this three bedroom, one bathroom ranch located in Elmsford, New York in Westchester County. This eleven hundred seventy two square foot home sits on a nice flat yard and features a walkout basement and an attached one car garage. Conveniently situated just five minutes from White Plains with easy access to the Saw Mill River Parkway, this property offers excellent proximity to restaurants, shops, public transportation, and schools. Please note the property is being sold as-is with no repairs by the seller. The house has been condemned with possible code violations. Cash offers, hard money financing, and renovation loans will be considered. This property does not qualify for conve

Key facts

• Walkout basement
• Flat yard
• 7,405 sq ft lot

Tags

• WALKOUT BASEMENT
• FLAT YARD

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage; 1 garage space; No carport
• Utilities: Public sewer; Cable available
• Home design: Single family residence
• Construction: Frame construction
• Exterior features: Frame construction; Not waterfront

Interior

• Bedrooms: Bedroom on the first floor
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Baseboard heating; No central cooling
• Interior features: First-floor bedroom; First-floor full bathroom; Unfinished walk-out basement; Pull-down attic stairs; 6 total rooms
• Laundry & utility: Oil water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $300k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $452 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $300k).
• Recommended offer: $295k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#521 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, cost of living F, health & safety F.
• Elmsford Union Free School District (suburban): math 38% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #397 of 590 in NY (top 67%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Alice E Grady Elementary School (math 27% / reading 57%, grade F, #1,361 of 2,108 statewide, top 67%, 383 students, 0% FRL); Alexander Hamilton High School (math 52% / reading 47%, grade D, #974 of 1,100 statewide, top 91%, 485 students, 53% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.1%/yr); 16 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 19d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 954 units permitted in Westchester County in 2024 (649 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($118k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Westchester County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 5.1% rent growth), your $84k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 27 days — a 2% lower offer ($295k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 20y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $126k; list at $300k implies a 138% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.0% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→14/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $295,401 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1961 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.22% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.10%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.46%
• DSCR: 1.29
• GRM: 6.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $638,740
• Comps found: 4

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
67 Sears Ave	0.46mi	3/1.0	1,200 (+2%)	15mo	$586,500	$489	62
112 Cabot Ave	0.27mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,248 (+6%)	8mo	$680,000	$545	61
16 S Lawrence Ave	0.19mi	2/3.0 (-1)	1,100 (-6%)	11mo	$600,000	$545	59
52 Sears Ave	0.50mi	3/2.5	1,344 (+15%)	2mo	$700,000	$521	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.11% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -3.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.86×
• Total profit: $-11,546
• Equity at exit: $44,716

10-year hold

• IRR: 8.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.74×
• Total profit: $62,308
• Equity at exit: $25,930

Cash invested: $83,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 10523

• Home prices YoY: -20.6%
• Rents YoY: 5.1%
• Active inventory: 16
• Price-to-rent: 6.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,673 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,573
• Tax from tax record: −$751 /mo · $9,018/yr
• Insurance: −$125
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$771
• Net cashflow: $452

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,100

Max offer price $299,900

Occupancy floor 83%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $74,975
• Closing costs: $8,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
914 Old Country Rd Elmsford, NY	2.0	1.0	840	$2,700	$3.21	43d	1	0.35mi
32 Nob Hill Dr Elmsford, NY	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	978	$4,400	$4.50	1d	14	1.07mi
13 Granada Cres #1 White Plains, NY	2.0	2.0	1100	$3,500	$3.18	24d	1	1.08mi
35 S Lawn Ave Unit 3 Elmsford, NY	2.0	1.0	815	$2,650	$3.25	18d	1	1.11mi
290 E Main St Elmsford, NY	2.0	2.0	1086	$3,932	$3.62	1d	1	1.17mi
58 S Stone Ave Elmsford, NY	2.0	1.0	900	$2,950	$3.28	24d	1	1.22mi
846 Hartsdale Rd White Plains, NY	3.0	2.5	1500	$5,200	$3.47	17d	1	1.45mi
500 Town Green Dr Elmsford, NY	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.5	1209	$6,410	$5.30	1d	38	1.47mi

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $299,900 Active 27 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $299,900 Active 26 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $299,900 Active 25 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $299,900 Active 24 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $299,900 Active 22 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $299,900 Active 18 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $299,900 Active 17 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $299,900 Active 16 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $299,900 Active 13 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $299,900 Active 12 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $299,900 Active 11 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $299,900 Active 10 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $299,900 Active 9 DOM
14. 2026-05-21
    listed $299,900 Active
15. 2020-04-01
    historical
16. 2019-10-18
    listed $400,000 Active
17. 2006-09-09
    historical
18. 2006-03-09
    listed
19. 1998-01-06
    soldstatus $126,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $9,018 · $751/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $9,018 · $751/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 73% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥98°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 6 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $44,072
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,799
• − Property taxes: −$9,018
• − Insurance: −$1,500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,526
• − Management: −$3,526
• − Depreciation: −$8,724
• Taxable income: $979
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$235
• After-tax cash flow: $5,192/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Elmsford Union Free School District
• NCES district ID: 3610650
• Math proficiency: 38% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $87,488
• Composite: 42.17/100
• National rank: #3295
• State rank: #397 of 590 in NY

Livability — Elmsford

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #521
• US rank: #9232

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime A- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Westchester County · 709,332 people
• City population: 9,450
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• Population (ZIP): 9,450
• Household income: $118,438
• Rent vs Own: 48.1% rent · 51.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 413.0

Population outlook (Westchester County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,028,035 people
• By 2030: 1,051,636 · +2.3%
• By 2040: 1,098,520 · +6.9%
• By 2050: 1,136,044 · +10.5%
• By 2075: 1,196,925 · +16.4%
• By 2100: 1,175,147 · +14.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.72)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 40% White 27% Black 20% Two or more races 12% Asian 11%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Puerto Rican 6% Dominican 4%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Romanian 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 30% · Canada, Jamaica, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 59% English-only · Spanish 29% Other Asian/Pacific 4% Other Indo-European 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Westchester

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+26.3) · D 63.1% · R 36.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -1.3pp toward R · 2008: 27.6pp · 2024: 26.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+26.3 2020: D+36.3 2016: D+32.8 2012: D+22.2 2008: D+27.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -65.00%
• Current HPI: 251.3188
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.11%
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+138.0% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-21 Listed $299,900 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-04-01 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-10-18 Listed $400,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2006-09-09 Delisted — HGMLS
• 2006-03-09 Listed — HGMLS
• 1998-01-06 Sold (Public Records) $126,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-1.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $9,018 · -7.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.