27215 Mariposa Rd

Big Pine Key, FL 33042

$839,000D-

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,500 sqft · Built 2025 · Land · Active · 47 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $4,543/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$4,400
• Tax + insurance: −$1,825
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$954
• Net cashflow: $-2,636/mo
• Annual: $-31,629/yr
• Cap rate: 3.13%
• Cash-on-cash: -11.28%
• DSCR: 0.50
• 1% rule: 0.54%
• Cash to close: $234,920

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath land listed at $839k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-3k ($-32k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $458k (45.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $454k (45.9% below list).
• It's been on market 47 days — a 3% lower offer ($814k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $454k (45.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $90k of equity ($6k loan paydown + $84k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#597 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: schools A+, crime A+, employment A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Monroe (town): math 50% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #23 of 73 in FL (top 32%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Market conditions: 244 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 332 units permitted in Monroe County in 2024 (42 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Monroe County population projected at +28% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $90k; list at $839k implies a 832% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$144k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 3.1% vs local median 0.2% in Big Pine Key — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $4,543/mo this rent would consume 53% of the median local household income ($103k/yr) (locally 146% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 47 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 46% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.