27215 Mariposa Rd · Big Pine Key, FL 33042

$839,000

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,500 sqft · Land · 47 Days on market

Built 2025 6,000 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• Cash flow +4.4/30.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.4/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

NEW CONSTRUCTION! This charming 1,500 sqft home is a true retreat, perfectly positioned in the Lower Keys, just a moments walk from the popular Looe Key Tiki Bar and Boondocks restaurants. Tucked away in a quiet, low-traffic neighborhood, this property offers the ideal combination of peace and convenience, allowing you to embrace the relaxed Keys lifestyle. Inside, you'll find: A spacious, open floor plan that provides ample room to customize and make it your own. Effortless flow between the indoor living areas and the outdoor spaces, making it easy to take full advantage of Florida's year-round sunshine. A huge covered side porch great for entertaining and catching afternoon breeze! Additi

Key facts

• New construction
• 6,000 sq ft lot
• Pool

Tags

• NEW CONSTRUCTION
• QUIET LOW TRAFFIC NEIGHBORHOOD
• SPACIOUS OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• HUGE COVERED SIDE PORCH
• NEWLY CONSTRUCTED HOME

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: No first right of refusal; No association fee (fee listed as $0.00); fee includes: Other

Exterior

• Utilities: Public sewer hookup (buyer to verify utilities)
• Home design: Modular construction; Built in 2025; Above flood level
• Construction: Modular construction
• Exterior features: In-ground pool; Canal-front property with canal view; On waterfront (plugged canal front); Pets allowed; Rentals allowed with restrictions

Interior

• Kitchen: Stainless steel appliances
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Stainless steel appliances; New construction condition

🏗️ New construction. Builder plan / spec listing (the home may be to-be-built); metrics use comparable previous sales.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath land listed at $839k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-3k ($-32k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $458k (45.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $454k (45.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $454k (45.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 3.1% vs local median 0.2% in Big Pine Key — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#597 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: schools A+, crime A+, employment A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Monroe (town): math 50% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #23 of 73 in FL (top 32%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 244 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 332 units permitted in Monroe County in 2024 (42 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $4,543/mo this rent would consume 53% of the median local household income ($103k/yr) (locally 146% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $90k of equity ($6k loan paydown + $84k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Monroe County population projected at +28% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$144k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 47 days — a 3% lower offer ($814k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $90k; list at $839k implies a 832% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $454,296 (45.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 47 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 46% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.54% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.13%
• Cash-on-cash: -11.28%
• DSCR: 0.50
• GRM: 15.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 14.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.23×
• Total profit: $289,400
• Equity at exit: $755,838

10-year hold

• IRR: 14.7%
• Equity multiple: 5.19×
• Total profit: $984,907
• Equity at exit: $1,629,992

Cash invested: $234,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33042

• Home prices YoY: 2.5%
• Active inventory: 244
• Price-to-rent: 15.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,543 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$4,400
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$1,049 /mo · $12,585/yr
• Insurance: −$350
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$954
• Net cashflow: $-2,636

Break-even live

Break-even rent $7,879

Max offer price $457,604

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-2,056	-5% $-2,346	+0% $-2,636	+5% $-2,926	+10% $-3,216
Rent	-10% $-2,995	-5% $-2,815	+0% $-2,636	+5% $-2,456	+10% $-2,277
Rate	-1.0pp $-2,213	-0.5pp $-2,422	base $-2,636	+0.5pp $-2,853	+1.0pp $-3,074

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $209,750
• Closing costs: $25,170
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 27 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $839,000 Active 47 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $839,000 Active 44 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $839,000 Active 43 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $839,000 Active 42 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $839,000 Active 41 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $839,000 Active 40 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $839,000 Active 38 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $839,000 Active 37 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $839,000 Active 35 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $839,000 Active 34 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $839,000 Active 33 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $839,000 Active 32 DOM
13. 2026-06-05
    days on market $839,000 Active 29 DOM
14. 2026-06-03
    days on market $839,000 Active 28 DOM
15. 2026-06-02
    days on market $839,000 Active 27 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    days on market $839,000 Active 26 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $839,000 Active 25 DOM
18. 2026-05-30
    days on market $839,000 Active 24 DOM
19. 2026-05-06
    listed $839,000 Active
20. 2025-10-22
    historical
21. 2025-10-06
    price $879,000
22. 2025-05-29
    listed $829,000 Active
23. 2025-05-29
    historical
24. 2025-01-20
    listed $949,000 Active
25. 2021-01-25
    soldstatus $90,000
26. 2020-08-12
    soldstatus $59,000
27. 2012-07-20
    soldstatus $39,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 10/10 Extreme FEMA zone AE · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $54,516
• − Mortgage interest: −$46,997
• − Property taxes: −$12,585
• − Insurance: −$9,314
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,361
• − Management: −$4,361
• − Depreciation: −$24,407
• Taxable loss: −$47,510
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$11,402
• After-tax cash flow: $-20,227/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Monroe
• NCES district ID: 1201320
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 55% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $56,955
• Composite: 45.51/100
• National rank: #2608
• State rank: #23 of 73 in FL

Livability — Big Pine Key

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #597
• US rank: #11450

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A- Health & safety F User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Monroe County · 66,185 people
• Metro: Key West, FL
• Population (ZIP): 6,441
• Household income: $103,041
• Rent vs Own: 17.3% rent · 82.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 146.0

Population outlook (Monroe County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 90,706 people
• By 2030: 96,308 · +6.2%
• By 2040: 106,565 · +17.5%
• By 2050: 116,500 · +28.4%
• By 2075: 141,423 · +55.9%
• By 2100: 151,947 · +67.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Two or more races 12% Hispanic / Latino 12% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 2% Cuban 5%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Slovak 3% Iranian 3%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 5% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Monroe

• 2024 margin: R (+18.3) · D 40.5% · R 58.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -23.2pp toward R · 2008: 4.9pp · 2024: -18.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+18.3 2020: R+7.9 2016: R+6.9 2012: D+0.4 2008: D+4.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 12.11%
• Current HPI: 491.52
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Key West, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+2051.3% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-06 Listed $839,000 FLKMLS
• 2025-10-22 Listing Removed — FLKMLS
• 2025-10-06 Price Changed $879,000 FLKMLS
• 2025-05-29 Listing Removed — FLKMLS
• 2025-05-29 Listed $829,000 FLKMLS
• 2025-01-20 Listed $949,000 FLKMLS
• 2021-01-25 Sold (Public Records) $90,000 Public Records
• 2020-08-12 Sold (Public Records) $59,000 Public Records
• 2012-07-20 Sold (Public Records) $39,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+11.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,295 · +14.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.