2809 Buhach Rd #89

Atwater, CA 95301

$55,900B+

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,440 sqft · Built 1979 · Manufactured · Active · 69 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,721/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$293
• Tax + insurance: −$93
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$361
• Net cashflow: $973/mo
• Annual: $11,680/yr
• Cap rate: 27.19%
• Cash-on-cash: 74.62%
• DSCR: 4.32
• 1% rule: 3.08%
• Cash to close: $15,652

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $56k. Condition is rated fair.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $973 ($12k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $56k).
• It's been on market 69 days — a 6% lower offer ($53k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $53k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $386 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#295 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, amenities B; Watch: employment D+, schools D, crime F.
• Merced Union High (urban): math 20% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #301 of 517 in CA (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 115 active listings in the ZIP; 459 units permitted in Merced County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Merced County population projected at +12% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $16k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Cap rate 27.2% vs local median 2.8% in Atwater — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($68k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 69 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
• Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.

Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)

• Moderate: Exterior siding — Weathered and some areas show discoloration.
• Moderate: Interior walls — Paint quality is uneven.
• Major: Flooring — OSB subfloor in the living areas and kitchen.
• Moderate: Bathroom — Exposed plumbing and framing.
• Major: Kitchen countertops — Not yet installed.
• Minor: Kitchen cabinets — Installed but countertops are not yet in place.