2809 Buhach Rd #89 · Atwater, CA 95301

$55,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,440 sqft · Manufactured · 69 Days on market

Built 1979 Fair condition Est $76k · 27% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Opportunity knocks! Spacious 3 Bedroom & 2 bath Doublewide mobile home fixer, newer plumbing plex tubing through-out, inside laundry area Etc. Bring your tool belt and make this your own! Affordable low space rent in an all age park!

Key facts

• Inside laundry area
• Parking
• Built 1979

Tags

• DOUBLEWIDE MOBILE HOME
• NEWER PLUMBING PLEX TUBING
• INSIDE LAUNDRY AREA

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Land lease amount listed as $675
• Financial info: Land lease: No (land lease amount listed separately)
• HOA & community: No homeowners association; Not a senior community

Exterior

• Parking: Covered parking
• Utilities: Utilities described in remarks; Electric: other; Sewer: other; Water source: other; No solar power production reported
• Home design: Manufactured home located in a park; Double-wide model; Fixer condition; Built in 1979; Brigadier make
• Construction: Composition roofing; Skirting described as other
• Exterior features: Composition roof; Lot features noted as other

Interior

• Kitchen: Laminate counters
• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms
• Flooring: Flooring details available in remarks
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms; Shower stall(s)
• Heating & cooling: Heating details available in remarks; Cooling details available in remarks
• Interior features: Living room with additional features (see remarks); Dining area with additional features (see remarks)
• Laundry & utility: Indoor laundry area

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $56k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $973 ($12k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $56k).
• Recommended offer: $53k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 27.2% vs local median 2.8% in Atwater — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#295 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, amenities B; Watch: employment D+, schools D, crime F.
• Merced Union High (urban): math 20% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #301 of 517 in CA (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 115 active listings in the ZIP; 459 units permitted in Merced County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($68k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $386 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Merced County population projected at +12% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $16k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 69 days — a 6% lower offer ($53k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $52,546 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 69 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.08% ✓
• Cap rate: 27.19%
• Cash-on-cash: 74.62%
• DSCR: 4.32
• GRM: 2.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $76,320
• Comps found: 3

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5200 Crest Rd #96	0.28mi	3/2.0	1,500 (+4%)	1mo	$80,000	$53	79
2900 Muir Ave #30	0.60mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,440 (0%)	6mo	$67,000	$47	62
2900 Muir Ave #57	0.57mi	3/2.0	1,368 (-5%)	12mo	$150,000	$110	55

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 74.5%
• Equity multiple: 4.38×
• Total profit: $52,960
• Equity at exit: $8,335

10-year hold

• IRR: 78.2%
• Equity multiple: 9.05×
• Total profit: $126,048
• Equity at exit: $4,833

Cash invested: $15,652 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95301

• Active inventory: 115
• Price-to-rent: 2.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,721 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$293
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$70 /mo · $838/yr
• Insurance: −$23
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$361
• Net cashflow: $973

Break-even live

Break-even rent $489

Max offer price $55,900

Occupancy floor 38%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,012	-5% $993	+0% $973	+5% $954	+10% $935
Rent	-10% $837	-5% $905	+0% $973	+5% $1,041	+10% $1,109
Rate	-1.0pp $1,001	-0.5pp $988	base $973	+0.5pp $959	+1.0pp $944

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $13,975
• Closing costs: $1,677
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $55,900 Active 69 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $55,900 Active 68 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $55,900 Active 67 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $55,900 Active 66 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $55,900 Active 64 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $55,900 Active 63 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $55,900 Active 61 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $55,900 Active 60 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $55,900 Active 59 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $55,900 Active 58 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $55,900 Active 54 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $55,900 Active 53 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $55,900 Active 52 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $55,900 Active 51 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $55,900 Active 50 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,653
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,131
• − Property taxes: −$838
• − Insurance: −$280
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,652
• − Management: −$1,652
• − Depreciation: −$1,626
• Taxable income: $11,473
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,754
• After-tax cash flow: $8,927/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 6 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab

This mobile home is in fair condition with moderate repairs needed. The interior is unfinished, and the exterior siding shows weathering. The home has potential for significant value increase with proper renovations.

Repairs flagged

• Moderate Exterior siding — Weathered and some areas show discoloration.
• Moderate Interior walls — Paint quality is uneven.
• Major Flooring — OSB subfloor in the living areas and kitchen.
• Moderate Bathroom — Exposed plumbing and framing.
• Major Kitchen countertops — Not yet installed.
• Minor Kitchen cabinets — Installed but countertops are not yet in place.
• Minor Landscaping — Minimal landscaping with some plants and a small tree in front of the house.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint interior walls — Improves the appearance and can increase both resale and rental value.
• Both Install flooring — Provides a finished look and can increase both resale and rental value.
• Both Install kitchen countertops — Completes the kitchen and can increase both resale and rental value.
• Both Landscaping — Improves curb appeal and can increase both resale and rental value.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
Exterior siding · Weathered and some areas show discoloration.	Moderate	$3,000–15,000
Interior walls · Paint quality is uneven.	Moderate	$3,000–15,000
Flooring · OSB subfloor in the living areas and kitchen.	Major	$15,000–50,000
Bathroom · Exposed plumbing and framing.	Moderate	$3,000–15,000
Kitchen countertops · Not yet installed.	Major	$15,000–50,000
Kitchen cabinets · Installed but countertops are not yet in place.	Minor	$500–3,000
Landscaping · Minimal landscaping with some plants and a small tree in front of the house.	Minor	$500–3,000
Total estimated repair cost · 7 items		$40,000–151,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint interior walls — Improves the appearance and can increase both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both Install flooring — Provides a finished look and can increase both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both Install kitchen countertops — Completes the kitchen and can increase both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both Landscaping — Improves curb appeal and can increase both resale and rental value. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Merced Union High
• NCES district ID: 0624660
• Math proficiency: 20% ▲ 3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $44,977
• Composite: 28.11/100
• National rank: #6823
• State rank: #301 of 517 in CA

Livability — Atwater

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #295
• US rank: #9893

Category grades

Amenities B Commute F Cost of living F Crime F Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Atwater, CA
• County: Merced County · 205,386 people
• City population: 43,009
• Metro: Merced, CA
• Population (ZIP): 43,009
• Household income: $68,349
• Rent vs Own: 43.4% rent · 56.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 1477.0

Population outlook (Merced County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 285,501 people
• By 2030: 293,437 · +2.8%
• By 2040: 308,808 · +8.2%
• By 2050: 321,011 · +12.4%
• By 2075: 338,497 · +18.6%
• By 2100: 330,493 · +15.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.61)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 53% White 33% Two or more races 11% Asian 6% Black 4% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 50%
• Common ancestry: Russian 7% Slovak 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 21% · Canada
• Languages at home: 56% English-only · Spanish 37% Other Indo-European 3% Other Asian/Pacific 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Merced

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 46.5% · R 50.9% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.7pp toward R · 2008: 8.3pp · 2024: -4.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+4.4 2020: D+10.6 2016: D+7.9 2012: D+5.4 2008: D+8.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -365.43%
• Current HPI: 281.52
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Merced, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B