3 bd · 2.5 ba ·
1,666 sqft ·
Built 2019
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 7 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,620/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,521
Tax + insurance
−$413
HOA
−$110
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$340
Net cashflow
$-764/mo
Annual
$-9,170/yr
Cap rate
3.13%
Cash-on-cash
-11.29%
DSCR
0.50
1% rule
0.56%
Cash to close
$81,200
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $290k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-764 ($-9k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $155k (46.6% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $162k (44.2% below list).
Only 7 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
Recommended offer: $155k (46.6% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
In year one you build about $11k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $9k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
Location reads 74/100 on livability (#30 in SD, #4,416 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety D-.
Tea Area School District 41-5 (rural): math 54% / reading 63% proficiency, ranked #4 of 59 in SD (top 7%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 14% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
Market conditions: 1 active listings in the ZIP; 20 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 14d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 45% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 232 units permitted in Lincoln County in 2024 (14 in 5+ unit buildings).
Lincoln County population projected at +66% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $25k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$36k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
Cap rate 3.1% vs local median 1.7% in Tea — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-DDWCPMDW43CP9V
· Data 2 days agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29