3 bd · 2.0 ba ·
1,388 sqft ·
Built 2026
· Land
· Active
· 36 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$2,011/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,436
Tax + insurance
−$219
HOA
−$63
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$422
Net cashflow
$-129/mo
Annual
$-1,549/yr
Cap rate
5.73%
Cash-on-cash
-2.02%
DSCR
0.91
1% rule
0.73%
Cash to close
$76,684
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $266k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-129 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $251k (5.6% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $201k (24.4% below list).
It's been on market 36 days — a 3% lower offer ($258k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $201k (24.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 62/100 on livability (#960 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D-, amenities F, commute F.
Lamar CISD (suburban): math 50% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #116 of 826 in TX (top 14%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
Zoned schools: Dean Leaman J H School (math 59% / reading 56%, grade B, #206 of 1,662 statewide, top 13%, 2,191 students, 32% FRL); Fulshear H S (math 52% / reading 70%, grade C+, #258 of 1,632 statewide, top 16%, 2,464 students, 30% FRL).
Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.0%/yr); 997 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 12,093 units permitted in Fort Bend County in 2024 (815 in 5+ unit buildings).
Fort Bend County population projected at +75% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 36 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 24% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
CashFlowRE · CFR-DDZ2T76KEJ65NB
· Data 2 days agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29