1901 W Cottonwood Creek Dr

Knik-Fairview, AK 99654

$310,000D-

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,680 sqft · Built 1977 · SingleFamily · Pending · 39 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,063/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,626
• Tax + insurance: −$404
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$433
• Net cashflow: $-399/mo
• Annual: $-4,791/yr
• Cap rate: 4.75%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.52%
• DSCR: 0.75
• 1% rule: 0.67%
• Cash to close: $86,800

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $310k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-399 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $239k (22.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $206k (33.4% below list).
• It's been on market 39 days — a 3% lower offer ($301k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $206k (33.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Matanuska-Susitna Borough School District (town): math 42% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #5 of 21 in AK (top 24%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Snowshoe Elementary (math 52% / reading 52%, grade C-, #43 of 156 statewide, top 32%, 340 students, 46% FRL); Wasilla Middle School (math 30% / reading 46%, grade F, #18 of 36 statewide, top 49%, 610 students, 44% FRL); Wasilla High School (math 22% / reading 27%, grade F, #42 of 61 statewide, top 82%, 848 students, 35% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 514 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 91 units permitted in Matanuska-Susitna Borough in 2024 (25 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Matanuska-Susitna County population projected at +50% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Cap rate 4.7% vs local median 3.3% in Knik-Fairview — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 39 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 33% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1977 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.