1901 W Cottonwood Creek Dr · Knik-Fairview, AK 99654

$310,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,680 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 39 Days on market

Built 1977 0.92 ac lot $185/sqft · 9% below area Est $457k · 32% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +7.4/30.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.7/10.0
• DSCR +1.5/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Here's a multi level home in well desired Suburban Country Estates! 3BR 1.5BA w/family room. Upper level over looks kitchen, dining & living room. Wood burning fireplace. Vaulted ceilings. Owner built a mud area/breezeway between house/garage. Some updating over the years. Lots of pantry/storage. Oversized 2 car garage. Landscaped yard w/raised boxes. Circular driveway.

Key facts

• Pantry
• Breezeway
• Mud area

Tags

• WOOD BURNING FIREPLACE
• VAULTED CEILINGS
• MUD AREA
• BREEZEWAY
• PANTRY
• LANDSCAPED YARD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $310k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-399 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $239k (22.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $206k (33.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $206k (33.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.7% vs local median 3.3% in Knik-Fairview — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Matanuska-Susitna Borough School District (town): math 42% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #5 of 21 in AK (top 24%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Snowshoe Elementary (math 52% / reading 52%, grade C-, #43 of 156 statewide, top 32%, 340 students, 46% FRL); Wasilla Middle School (math 30% / reading 46%, grade F, #18 of 36 statewide, top 49%, 610 students, 44% FRL); Wasilla High School (math 22% / reading 27%, grade F, #42 of 61 statewide, top 82%, 848 students, 35% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 514 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 91 units permitted in Matanuska-Susitna Borough in 2024 (25 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Matanuska-Susitna County population projected at +50% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 39 days — a 3% lower offer ($301k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $206,346 (33.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 39 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 33% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1977 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.67% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.75%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.52%
• DSCR: 0.75
• GRM: 12.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $456,506
• List price: $310,000
• Delta: -32.09%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 19 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1745 W Riffle St	0.21mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,632 (-3%)	7mo	$384,999	$236	73
2001 W Rivulet Ave	0.15mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,780 (+6%)	8mo	$315,000	$177	70
2835 S Cataract St	0.39mi	3/2.0	1,578 (-6%)	8mo	$449,000	$285	63
3050 S Rapid Creek St	0.14mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,924 (+14%)	20mo	$356,000	$185	46
1600 Rivulet Ave	0.31mi	3/2.5	1,885 (+12%)	22mo	$425,000	$225	42
2662 S Weeping Birch St	0.66mi	3/2.5	1,908 (+14%)	14mo	$465,000	$244	31

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.04% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -28.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.06×
• Total profit: $-81,668
• Equity at exit: $46,222

10-year hold

• IRR: -44.7%
• Equity multiple: -0.46×
• Total profit: $-127,098
• Equity at exit: $26,803

Cash invested: $86,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 80 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alaska: 80 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

30-day notice; security deposits capped; courts moderate-paced.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 99654

• Home prices YoY: -9.9%
• Rents YoY: 0.0%
• Active inventory: 514
• Price-to-rent: 12.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,063 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,626
• Tax from tax record: −$275 /mo · $3,294/yr
• Insurance: −$129
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$433
• Net cashflow: $-399

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,569

Max offer price $239,474

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-224	-5% $-311	+0% $-399	+5% $-487	+10% $-575
Rent	-10% $-562	-5% $-481	+0% $-399	+5% $-318	+10% $-236
Rate	-1.0pp $-243	-0.5pp $-320	base $-399	+0.5pp $-480	+1.0pp $-561

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $77,500
• Closing costs: $9,300
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-04-17
   listed $310,000 Active 376-char remark

   Show marketing remark (376 chars)

   Here's a multi level home in well desired Suburban Country Estates! 3BR 1.5BA w/family room. Upper level over looks kitchen, dining & living room. Wood burning fireplace. Vaulted ceilings. Owner built a mud area/breezeway between house/garage. Some updating over the years. Lots of pantry/storage. Oversized 2 car garage. Landscaped yard w/raised boxes. Circular driveway.

2. 2025-11-19
   listed $300,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AK · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,294 · $275/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,492 · $291/mo
• Expected delta: +$197/yr (+$16/mo · 6.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,762
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,365
• − Property taxes: −$3,294
• − Insurance: −$1,550
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,981
• − Management: −$1,981
• − Depreciation: −$9,018
• Taxable loss: −$10,428
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,503
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,288/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Matanuska-Susitna Borough School District
• NCES district ID: 0200510
• Math proficiency: 42% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▲ 5.00%
• Median HH income: $70,325
• Composite: 41.38/100
• National rank: #3484
• State rank: #5 of 21 in AK

Livability — Knik-Fairview

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Knik-Fairview, AK
• County: Matanuska Susitna Borough · 100,174 people
• Metro: Anchorage, AK
• Population (ZIP): 44,647
• Household income: $97,544
• Rent vs Own: 28.9% rent · 71.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 872.0

Population outlook (Matanuska-Susitna County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 126,730 people
• By 2030: 139,641 · +10.2%
• By 2040: 165,122 · +30.3%
• By 2050: 189,697 · +49.7%
• By 2075: 249,959 · +97.2%
• By 2100: 288,077 · +127.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 76% Two or more races 12% Native American 6% Hispanic / Latino 5% Asian 2% Black 1%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 3% Lithuanian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Russian/Polish/Slavic 2% Spanish 2% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Matanuska-Susitna

• 2016 margin: R (+15.2) · D 37.7% · R 52.9% · Other 9.4%
• All cycles: 2016: R+15.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -21.68%
• Current HPI: 196.8728
• Rent YoY: ▬ 0.04%
• Metro: Anchorage, AK
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+3.3% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-17 Listed $310,000 AKMLS
• 2025-11-19 Listed $300,000 AKMLS

Property tax history

+3.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,294 · +1.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.