11851 Riverside Dr Spc 225

Lakeside, CA 92040

$330,000C-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,618 sqft · Built 1999 · Manufactured · Active · 65 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,185/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,731
• Tax + insurance: −$203
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$669
• Net cashflow: $583/mo
• Annual: $6,997/yr
• Cap rate: 8.41%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.57%
• DSCR: 1.34
• 1% rule: 0.97%
• Cash to close: $92,400

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $330k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $583 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $319k (3.5% below list).
• It's been on market 65 days — a 6% lower offer ($310k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $310k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 55/100 on livability (#877 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: employment A-, housing A-, health & safety B; Watch: commute D, crime D-, amenities F.
• Lakeside Union Elementary (suburban): math 41% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #480 of 1,400 in CA (top 34%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Lakeside Farms Elementary (649 students, 32% FRL); Lakeside Middle (676 students, 32% FRL); El Capitan High (math 20% / reading 54%, grade F, #578 of 1,170 statewide, top 51%, 1,825 students, 52% FRL) — zoned schools at 39% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.6%/yr); 149 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 3d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 11,759 units permitted in San Diego County in 2024 (7,244 in 5+ unit buildings).
• San Diego County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts since 21y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $35k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $225k; 47% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 6→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 8.4% vs local median 2.5% in Lakeside — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($108k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 65 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.