11851 Riverside Dr Spc 225 · Lakeside, CA 92040

$330,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,618 sqft · Manufactured public records · 65 Days on market

Built 1999 1.65 ac lot Est $314k · 5% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.8/30.0
• DSCR +7.3/10.0
• ARV discount +5.2/15.0
• 1% rule +4.6/10.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Beautiful, larger model mfr'd home in desirable park. Immaculate throughout! Light & bright. Ceramic tile entry & front porch. Great kitchen, huge MBR. Separate laundry room, long covered concrete patio slab, pleasant rear yard with small waterfall. Nice garage w/ direct entry to home. At least one buyer must be 55 yrs. [Supplement]: Park is very close to golf course and is a highly desired community. One of the few parks which has homes with attached garages for convenience and security. You will enjoy great neighbors and nice amenities. Relax on your covered patio or in the beautifully landscaped rear yard with wrought iron fencing. Has a front ramp for ease of entering. BEFORE APPLYING TO PARK, Buyer must have written Offer and it must be accepted by Seller. Serial numbers are CAFLX08A22772ST12 and CAFLX08B22772ST12. HUD Label/Insignia numbers are RAD1143977 and RAD 1143978. Room measurements are approximate. Buyer to verify all information before close of escrow.

Key facts

• Attached garage
• Spacious kitchen
• Billiards room

Tags

• ATTACHED GARAGE
• SPACIOUS KITCHEN
• EXTENDED ISLAND
• LARGE COVERED PATIO
• GOLF COURSE
• BILLIARDS ROOM

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Land lease of $957 per month
• HOA & community: Senior community; Community features include golf course; Park name: Willowbrook Estates West; Manager approval required

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage (1 car); 1 total parking space
• Utilities: Public sewer
• Home design: Single-story mobile home; Mobile home remains on site; Mobile dimensions approximately 13' x 61'; Faces ground-level entry
• Construction: Single-story (1 story)
• Exterior features: Community pool; Lot is rectangular

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom (main floor); All bedrooms on the ground floor
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central cooling
• Interior features: Ground-floor entry; One-level home; Walk-in closet; Entry area; Living room; Primary bathroom
• Laundry & utility: Dedicated laundry room; Washer included; Dryer included

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $330k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $575 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $317k (3.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $310k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.4% vs local median 2.5% in Lakeside — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 55/100 on livability (#877 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: employment A-, housing A-, health & safety B; Watch: commute D, crime D-, amenities F.
• Lakeside Union Elementary (suburban): math 41% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #480 of 1,400 in CA (top 34%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.6%/yr); 148 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 3d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 11,759 units permitted in San Diego County in 2024 (7,244 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($108k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• San Diego County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 65 days — a 6% lower offer ($310k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 21y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $35k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $225k; 47% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 6→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $310,200 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 65 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.96% ✗
• Cap rate: 8.38%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.47%
• DSCR: 1.33
• GRM: 8.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $313,892
• Comps found: 9

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
11851 Riverside Dr Spc 285 Dr Spc 285	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,546 (-4%)	4mo	$348,000	$225	89
11949 Riverside Dr #38	0.19mi	3/2.0	1,536 (-5%)	4mo	$192,500	$125	79
11949 Riverside Dr #177	0.19mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,598 (-1%)	16mo	$310,000	$194	71
11851 Riverside Dr Spc 223	0.00mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,418 (-12%)	10mo	$375,000	$264	66
11851 RIVERSIDE Dr #238	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,400 (-14%)	15mo	$375,000	$268	65
11949 Riverside Dr #7	0.19mi	3/2.0	1,530 (-5%)	21mo	$278,900	$182	64
11851 Riverside Dr #246	0.00mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,400 (-14%)	10mo	$418,500	$299	64
11949 Riverside Dr #133	0.19mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,376 (-15%)	1mo	$161,000	$117	61
11949 Riverside DR SPC 34	0.19mi	3/2.0	1,830 (+13%)	13mo	$230,000	$126	58

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.56% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -4.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.84×
• Total profit: $-15,229
• Equity at exit: $49,204

10-year hold

• IRR: 5.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.44×
• Total profit: $40,676
• Equity at exit: $28,532

Cash invested: $92,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 92040

• Rents YoY: 3.6%
• Active inventory: 148
• Price-to-rent: 8.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,175 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,731
• Tax from tax record: −$65 /mo · $783/yr
• Insurance: −$138
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$667
• Net cashflow: $575

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,447

Max offer price $330,000

Occupancy floor 77%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $762	-5% $668	+0% $575	+5% $481	+10% $388
Rent	-10% $324	-5% $449	+0% $575	+5% $700	+10% $826
Rate	-1.0pp $741	-0.5pp $659	base $575	+0.5pp $489	+1.0pp $402

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $82,500
• Closing costs: $9,900
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
12156 Lakeside Ave Lakeside, CA	3.0	2.0	1424	$3,500	$2.46	2d	1	0.44mi
9830 Summersun Ln Lakeside, CA	2.0–3.0	1.5–2.5	1325	$2,700	$2.04	2d	1	0.55mi
12618 Laurel St Unit 12618 C Lakeside, CA	3.0	1.0	1100	$2,390	$2.17	2d	1	1.01mi
12738 Lakeshore Dr Lakeside, CA	3.0	2.5	1368	$4,300	$3.14	8d	1	1.19mi
9205 Emerald Grove Ave Lakeside, CA	3.0	2.0	1652	$3,650	$2.21	3d	1	1.35mi

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $330,000 Active 65 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $330,000 Active 62 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   price $330,000 Active 61 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $365,000 Active 61 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $365,000 Active 60 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $365,000 Active 59 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $365,000 Active 57 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $365,000 Active 53 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $365,000 Active 52 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $365,000 Active 51 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $365,000 Active 48 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $365,000 Active 47 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $365,000 Active 46 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $365,000 Active 45 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $365,000 Active 44 DOM
16. 2026-03-28
    listed $365,000 Active
17. 2005-12-08
    soldstatus $225,000 993-char remark

    Show marketing remark (993 chars)

    Beautiful, larger model mfr'd home in desirable park. Immaculate throughout! Light & bright. Ceramic tile entry & front porch. Great kitchen, huge MBR. Separate laundry room, long covered concrete patio slab, pleasant rear yard with small waterfall. Nice garage w/ direct entry to home. At least one buyer must be 55 yrs. [Supplement]: Park is very close to golf course and is a highly desired community. One of the few parks which has homes with attached garages for convenience and security. You will enjoy great neighbors and nice amenities. Relax on your covered patio or in the beautifully landscaped rear yard with wrought iron fencing. Has a front ramp for ease of entering. BEFORE APPLYING TO PARK, Buyer must have written Offer and it must be accepted by Seller. Serial numbers are CAFLX08A22772ST12 and CAFLX08B22772ST12. HUD Label/Insignia numbers are RAD1143977 and RAD 1143978. Room measurements are approximate. Buyer to verify all information before close of escrow.

18. 2005-09-28
    listed $255,000 993-char remark

    Show marketing remark (993 chars)

    Beautiful, larger model mfr'd home in desirable park. Immaculate throughout! Light & bright. Ceramic tile entry & front porch. Great kitchen, huge MBR. Separate laundry room, long covered concrete patio slab, pleasant rear yard with small waterfall. Nice garage w/ direct entry to home. At least one buyer must be 55 yrs. [Supplement]: Park is very close to golf course and is a highly desired community. One of the few parks which has homes with attached garages for convenience and security. You will enjoy great neighbors and nice amenities. Relax on your covered patio or in the beautifully landscaped rear yard with wrought iron fencing. Has a front ramp for ease of entering. BEFORE APPLYING TO PARK, Buyer must have written Offer and it must be accepted by Seller. Serial numbers are CAFLX08A22772ST12 and CAFLX08B22772ST12. HUD Label/Insignia numbers are RAD1143977 and RAD 1143978. Room measurements are approximate. Buyer to verify all information before close of escrow.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $783 · $65/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,508 · $209/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,725/yr (+$144/mo · 220.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 6 d/yr ≥97°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 5/10 Major 7 unhealthy d/yr today · 7 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $38,098
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,485
• − Property taxes: −$783
• − Insurance: −$1,650
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,048
• − Management: −$3,048
• − Depreciation: −$9,600
• Taxable income: $1,485
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$356
• After-tax cash flow: $6,542/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lakeside Union Elementary
• NCES district ID: 0620790
• Math proficiency: 41% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $65,574
• Composite: 43.51/100
• National rank: #6453
• State rank: #480 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Lakeside

• Score: 55/100
• State rank: #877
• US rank: #23702

Category grades

Amenities F Commute D Cost of living F Crime D- Employment A- Housing A- Health & safety B User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lakeside, CA
• County: San Diego County · 3,178,799 people
• City population: 46,216
• Metro: San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad, CA
• Population (ZIP): 46,216
• Household income: $107,937
• Rent vs Own: 32.3% rent · 67.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1147.0

Population outlook (San Diego County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 3,678,185 people
• By 2030: 3,856,546 · +4.8%
• By 2040: 4,171,407 · +13.4%
• By 2050: 4,421,607 · +20.2%
• By 2075: 4,831,599 · +31.4%
• By 2100: 4,832,502 · +31.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (69%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 69% Hispanic / Latino 22% Two or more races 11% Black 2% Asian 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 19%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Italian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 10% Arabic 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · San Diego

• 2024 margin: D (+16.8) · D 56.9% · R 40.1% · Other 2.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.6pp toward D · 2008: 10.2pp · 2024: 16.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+16.8 2020: D+22.8 2016: D+17.8 2012: D+5.1 2008: D+10.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -622.09%
• Current HPI: 344.8263
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.56%
• Metro: San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+43.1% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-28 Listed $365,000 CRMLS
• 2005-12-08 Sold (MLS) $225,000 CRMLS
• 2005-09-28 Listed $255,000 CRMLS

Property tax history

+3.3%/yr

Latest (2013): $783 · +3.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.