104 Lincoln St

Kirkman, IA 51447

$179,000D

4 bd · 1.5 ba · 2,002 sqft · Built 1978 · SingleFamily · Pending · 24 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,302/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$939
• Tax + insurance: −$199
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$273
• Net cashflow: $-109/mo
• Annual: $-1,313/yr
• Cap rate: 5.56%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.62%
• DSCR: 0.88
• 1% rule: 0.73%
• Cash to close: $50,120

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $179k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-109 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $160k (10.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $130k (27.3% below list).
• It's been on market 24 days — a 2% lower offer ($176k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $130k (27.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $7k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $5k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#637 in IA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Ikm-Manning Community School District (rural): math 75% / reading 78% proficiency, ranked #58 of 289 in IA (top 20%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical.
• Zoned schools: Irwin Elementary School (math 84% / reading 64%, grade A, #131 of 616 statewide, top 27%, 230 students, 39% FRL); Ikm-Manning Middle School (math 78% / reading 80%, grade A+, #42 of 246 statewide, top 17%, 284 students, 35% FRL); Ikm-Manning High School (math 67% / reading 82%, grade B+, #89 of 336 statewide, top 30%, 196 students, 39% FRL).
• Market conditions: 1 active listings in the ZIP; 8 units permitted in Shelby County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Shelby County population projected to shrink 7% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 2 sale attempts since 26y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $80k; list at $179k implies a 124% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.