104 Lincoln St · Kirkman, IA 51447

$179,000

4 bd · 1.5 ba · 2,002 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 24 Days on market

Built 1978 0.32 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +6.5/10.0
• Appreciation +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• DSCR +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.3/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

TURN KEY HOME IN QUIET SMALL TOWN. 4 BEDROOM HOME WITH 12X70 DECK, 2 CAR ATTACHED GARAGE.

Key facts

• Formal dining room
• Sliding glass doors
• Kitchen dining area

Tags

• EAT-IN KITCHEN
• KITCHEN DINING AREA
• FORMAL DINING ROOM
• WOODBURNING FIREPLACE
• SLIDING GLASS DOORS
• DECK

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached heated garage; 2 garage spaces; Concrete garage floor
• Utilities: Private sewer
• Home design: Single-family residence; Residential property
• Construction: Vinyl siding
• Exterior features: Private sewer; Lot approximately 0.32 acres (112 x 125)

Interior

• Bathrooms: Two three-quarter bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central air conditioning; Forced air heating
• Interior features: Fireplace (1)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $179k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-109 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $160k (10.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $130k (27.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $130k (27.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#637 in IA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Ikm-Manning Community School District (rural): math 75% / reading 78% proficiency, ranked #58 of 289 in IA (top 20%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical.
• Zoned schools: Irwin Elementary School (math 84% / reading 64%, grade A, #131 of 616 statewide, top 27%, 230 students, 39% FRL); Ikm-Manning Middle School (math 78% / reading 80%, grade A+, #42 of 246 statewide, top 17%, 284 students, 35% FRL); Ikm-Manning High School (math 67% / reading 82%, grade B+, #89 of 336 statewide, top 30%, 196 students, 39% FRL).
• Market conditions: 1 active listings in the ZIP; 8 units permitted in Shelby County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $7k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $5k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Shelby County population projected to shrink 7% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 24 days — a 2% lower offer ($176k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 26y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $80k; list at $179k implies a 124% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $130,196 (27.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.73% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.56%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.62%
• DSCR: 0.88
• GRM: 11.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 5.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.29×
• Total profit: $14,554
• Equity at exit: $80,486

10-year hold

• IRR: 8.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.23×
• Total profit: $61,548
• Equity at exit: $124,039

Cash invested: $50,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Iowa: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; mostly landlord-friendly statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 51447

• Active inventory: 1
• Price-to-rent: 11.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,302 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$939
• Tax from tax record: −$125 /mo · $1,496/yr
• Insurance: −$75
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$273
• Net cashflow: $-109

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,440

Max offer price $159,675

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-8	-5% $-59	+0% $-109	+5% $-160	+10% $-211
Rent	-10% $-212	-5% $-161	+0% $-109	+5% $-58	+10% $-7
Rate	-1.0pp $-19	-0.5pp $-64	base $-109	+0.5pp $-156	+1.0pp $-203

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $44,750
• Closing costs: $5,370
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-15
   statusdays on market $179,000 Pending 24 DOM
2. 2026-06-13
   days on market $179,000 Active Under Contract 23 DOM
3. 2026-06-12
   statusdays on market $179,000 Active Under Contract 22 DOM
4. 2026-06-09
   days on market $179,000 Active 19 DOM
5. 2026-06-08
   days on market $179,000 Active 18 DOM
6. 2026-06-07
   days on market $179,000 Active 17 DOM
7. 2026-06-07
   days on market $179,000 Active 16 DOM
8. 2026-06-04
   days on market $179,000 Active 13 DOM
9. 2026-06-02
   days on market $179,000 Active 12 DOM
10. 2026-06-01
    days on market $179,000 Active 11 DOM
11. 2026-05-31
    days on market $179,000 Active 10 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $179,000 Active 9 DOM
13. 2026-05-21
    listed $179,000 Active
14. 2000-09-15
    soldstatus $80,000 89-char remark

    Show marketing remark (89 chars)

    TURN KEY HOME IN QUIET SMALL TOWN. 4 BEDROOM HOME WITH 12X70 DECK, 2 CAR ATTACHED GARAGE.

15. 2000-06-19
    listed $89,950 89-char remark

    Show marketing remark (89 chars)

    TURN KEY HOME IN QUIET SMALL TOWN. 4 BEDROOM HOME WITH 12X70 DECK, 2 CAR ATTACHED GARAGE.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,496 · $125/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,153 · $179/mo
• Expected delta: +$657/yr (+$55/mo · 43.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,624
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,027
• − Property taxes: −$1,496
• − Insurance: −$895
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,250
• − Management: −$1,250
• − Depreciation: −$5,207
• Taxable loss: −$4,501
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,080
• After-tax cash flow: $-232/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Ikm-Manning Community School District
• NCES district ID: 1914880
• Math proficiency: 75% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 78% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $49,285
• Composite: 64.68/100
• National rank: #524
• State rank: #58 of 289 in IA

Livability — Kirkman

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #637
• US rank: #14765

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Kirkman, IA
• Population (ZIP): 132

Population outlook (Shelby County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 11,637 people
• By 2030: 11,472 · -1.4%
• By 2040: 11,146 · -4.2%
• By 2050: 10,791 · -7.3%
• By 2075: 10,601 · -8.9%
• By 2100: 10,338 · -11.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (98%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 98% Hispanic / Latino 2% Two or more races 2%
• Common ancestry: Scottish 12% Italian 2% Portuguese 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Shelby

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+43.0) · D 27.9% · R 70.9% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -33.3pp toward R · 2008: -9.7pp · 2024: -43.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+43.0 2020: R+40.3 2016: R+42.9 2012: R+22.2 2008: R+9.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: —
• Current HPI: —
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.48%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$16B
▸Retail / Convenience	1	$15B

Price history

+99.0% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-14 Pending — IAR
• 2026-06-11 Contingent — IAR
• 2026-05-21 Listed $179,000 IAR
• 2000-09-15 Sold (MLS) $80,000 SWIAR
• 2000-06-19 Listed $89,950 SWIAR

Property tax history

+1.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,496 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.