5 Lunar Ln

Holiday Island, AR 72631

$92,000B

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,152 sqft · Built 1984 · Manufactured · Active · 103 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,100/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$482
• Tax + insurance: −$63
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$231
• Net cashflow: $324/mo
• Annual: $3,888/yr
• Cap rate: 10.52%
• Cash-on-cash: 15.09%
• DSCR: 1.67
• 1% rule: 1.20%
• Cash to close: $25,760

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $92k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $324 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $92k).
• It's been on market 103 days — a 9% lower offer ($84k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $84k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $7k of equity ($636 loan paydown + $7k appreciation (7.3% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#104 in AR) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Eureka Springs School District (rural): math 37% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #61 of 238 in AR (top 26%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Eureka Springs Elem. School (math 47% / reading 42%, grade F, #143 of 454 statewide, top 36%, 227 students, 66% FRL); Eureka Springs Middle School (math 37% / reading 42%, grade F, #92 of 201 statewide, top 50%, 212 students, 64% FRL); Eureka Springs High School (math 27% / reading 52%, grade F, #48 of 292 statewide, top 19%, 222 students, 51% FRL).
• Market conditions: 372 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 30 units permitted in Carroll County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Carroll County population projected at +4% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• Current owner paid $72k; 28% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• At projected returns (7.3% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $26k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Cap rate 10.5% vs local median 2.2% in Holiday Island — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 103 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.