11360 S Steel Rd

St. Charles, MI 48614

$206,900D-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,944 sqft · Built 1996 · SingleFamily · Pending · 5 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,327/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,085
• Tax + insurance: −$145
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$279
• Net cashflow: $-182/mo
• Annual: $-2,183/yr
• Cap rate: 5.24%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.77%
• DSCR: 0.83
• 1% rule: 0.64%
• Cash to close: $57,932

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $207k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-182 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $175k (15.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $133k (35.9% below list).
• Only 5 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $133k (35.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $22k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $21k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Merrill Community Schools (rural): math 19% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #407 of 540 in MI (top 75%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 6 active listings in the ZIP; 154 units permitted in Saginaw County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Saginaw County population projected at -25% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$36k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.