11360 S Steel Rd · St. Charles, MI 48614

$206,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,944 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 5 Days on market

Built 1996 3.36 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +8.5/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.3/10.0
• Schools +2.2/10.0
• 1% rule +1.4/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This 3 bedroom, 2.5 bath home with nearly 2,000 square feet of living space is located just west of Brant on 3.36 Acres! Adjacent to 530 acres of State Land for the hunting enthusiasts!! Many unique features include: Family Room AND Living Room, Spacious kitchen with tons of cupboards and snack bar area, self standing pellet stove to minimize heat costs, Primary bedroom with private bath featuring garden tub with separate shower and walk-in closet. First Floor Laundry. 40 x 40 Pole barn with cement floor & electricity. Garden areas. Small barn for small pets/chickens. Orchard with 11 different fruit trees, raspberries and blueberries. Small pond. One Year Home Warranty included!

Key facts

• Private bath
• Walk-in closet
• Spacious kitchen

Tags

• SPACIOUS KITCHEN
• SELF STANDING PELLET STOVE
• PRIVATE BATH
• GARDEN TUB
• SEPARATE SHOWER
• WALK-IN CLOSET

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Gravel road frontage on a public county road; Lot is irregularly shaped on approximately 3.36 acres
• HOA & community: Homeowners association present

Exterior

• Utilities: Private well water; Septic tank
• Home design: Single-family residence; One story
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Block foundation; Built with a crawl space
• Exterior features: Front porch; Barn(s)

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Oven; Range; Refrigerator; Electric water heater
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central air; Ceiling fan(s); Forced air heating; Propane heating
• Interior features: Cathedral ceilings; Window treatments

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $207k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-182 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $175k (15.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $133k (35.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $133k (35.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Merrill Community Schools (rural): math 19% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #407 of 540 in MI (top 75%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 6 active listings in the ZIP; 154 units permitted in Saginaw County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $22k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $21k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Saginaw County population projected at -25% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$36k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 5 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $132,690 (35.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.64% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.24%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.77%
• DSCR: 0.83
• GRM: 13.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 21.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.74×
• Total profit: $100,992
• Equity at exit: $186,392

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.5%
• Equity multiple: 6.29×
• Total profit: $306,314
• Equity at exit: $401,961

Cash invested: $57,932 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 48614

• Home prices YoY: 9.9%
• Active inventory: 6
• Price-to-rent: 13.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,327 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,085
• Tax from tax record: −$59 /mo · $708/yr
• Insurance: −$86
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$279
• Net cashflow: $-182

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,557

Max offer price $174,758

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-65	-5% $-123	+0% $-182	+5% $-241	+10% $-299
Rent	-10% $-287	-5% $-234	+0% $-182	+5% $-130	+10% $-77
Rate	-1.0pp $-78	-0.5pp $-129	base $-182	+0.5pp $-236	+1.0pp $-290

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $51,725
• Closing costs: $6,207
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-06-02
   status $206,900 Pending 5 DOM
2. 2026-06-01
   days on market $206,900 Active 5 DOM
3. 2026-05-31
   days on market $206,900 Active 4 DOM
4. 2026-05-30
   days on market $206,900 Active 3 DOM
5. 2026-05-27
   listed $206,900 Active

   Show marketing remark (693 chars)

   This 3 bedroom, 2.5 bath home with nearly 2,000 square feet of living space is located just west of Brant on 3.36 Acres! Adjacent to 530 acres of State Land for the hunting enthusiasts!! Many unique features include: Family Room AND Living Room, Spacious kitchen with tons of cupboards and snack bar area, self standing pellet stove to minimize heat costs, Primary bedroom with private bath featuring garden tub with separate shower and walk-in closet. First Floor Laundry. 40 x 40 Pole barn with cement floor & electricity. Garden areas. Small barn for small pets/chickens. Orchard with 11 different fruit trees, raspberries and blueberries. Small pond. One Year Home Warranty included!

6. 2026-05-27
   listed $206,900 Active 693-char remark

   Show marketing remark (693 chars)

   This 3 bedroom, 2.5 bath home with nearly 2,000 square feet of living space is located just west of Brant on 3.36 Acres! Adjacent to 530 acres of State Land for the hunting enthusiasts!! Many unique features include: Family Room AND Living Room, Spacious kitchen with tons of cupboards and snack bar area, self standing pellet stove to minimize heat costs, Primary bedroom with private bath featuring garden tub with separate shower and walk-in closet. First Floor Laundry. 40 x 40 Pole barn with cement floor & electricity. Garden areas. Small barn for small pets/chickens. Orchard with 11 different fruit trees, raspberries and blueberries. Small pond. One Year Home Warranty included!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $708 · $59/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,947 · $162/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,239/yr (+$103/mo · 175.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,923
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,590
• − Property taxes: −$708
• − Insurance: −$1,034
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,274
• − Management: −$1,274
• − Depreciation: −$6,019
• Taxable loss: −$5,976
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,434
• After-tax cash flow: $-749/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Merrill Community Schools
• NCES district ID: 2623610
• Math proficiency: 19% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 32% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $48,417
• Composite: 22.27/100
• National rank: #8141
• State rank: #407 of 540 in MI

Livability — St. Charles

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• City population: 5,655
• Population (ZIP): 921

Population outlook (Saginaw County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 180,568 people
• By 2030: 172,302 · -4.6%
• By 2040: 153,919 · -14.8%
• By 2050: 135,519 · -24.9%
• By 2075: 97,199 · -46.2%
• By 2100: 65,037 · -64.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (96%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 96% Two or more races 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 6% Romanian 3% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 1%
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Saginaw

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.0% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.6pp toward R · 2008: 17.3pp · 2024: -3.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.3 2020: D+0.3 2016: R+1.1 2012: D+11.9 2008: D+17.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 20.04%
• Current HPI: 222.0655
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-27 Listed $206,900 REALCOMP
• 2026-05-27 Listed $206,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS

Property tax history

-9.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $708 · -70.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.