4 bd · 3.0 ba ·
2,323 sqft ·
Built 2026
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 60 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$2,731/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$2,045
Tax + insurance
−$650
HOA
−$95
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$573
Net cashflow
$-632/mo
Annual
$-7,585/yr
Cap rate
4.35%
Cash-on-cash
-6.95%
DSCR
0.69
1% rule
0.70%
Cash to close
$109,166
Investor read
This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $390k. Condition is rated excellent.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-632 ($-8k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $298k (23.5% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $273k (30.0% below list).
It's been on market 60 days — a 3% lower offer ($378k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $273k (30.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 72/100 on livability (#346 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
Manatee (suburban): math 54% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #26 of 73 in FL (top 36%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
Zoned schools: James Tillman Elementary Magnet School (math 65% / reading 34%, grade D, #1,088 of 2,144 statewide, top 53%, 520 students, 74% FRL); Buffalo Creek Middle School (math 59% / reading 51%, grade B-, #180 of 571 statewide, top 32%, 1,127 students, 44% FRL); Palmetto High School (math 22% / reading 36%, grade F, #456 of 667 statewide, top 68%, 2,100 students, 61% FRL).
Market conditions: Rents soft (-3.0%/yr); 1452 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 53d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 78% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 7,472 units permitted in Manatee County in 2024 (1,782 in 5+ unit buildings).
Manatee County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→29/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
This rent runs 42% of the median local income ($78k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 60 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 30% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
CashFlowRE · CFR-DEW055DQD7VADT
· Data 15 h agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29