The Ellison II Plan

Mableton, GA 30168

$311,900F

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,912 sqft · Built — · SingleFamily · Active · 499 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,404/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,057
• Tax + insurance: −$654
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$505
• Net cashflow: $-812/mo
• Annual: $-9,742/yr
• Cap rate: 3.81%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.87%
• DSCR: 0.61
• 1% rule: 0.61%
• Cash to close: $109,845

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $312k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-812 ($-10k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $275k (11.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $240k (22.9% below list).
• It's been on market 499 days — a 12% lower offer ($274k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $240k (22.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#94 in GA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, cost of living A-, crime B+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute D-.
• Cobb County (suburban): math 39% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #25 of 174 in GA (top 14%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 126 active listings in the ZIP; 14 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 19d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,625 units permitted in Cobb County in 2024 (389 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Cobb County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At $2,404/mo this rent would consume 45% of the median local household income ($64k/yr) (locally 993% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 499 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 23% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.