The Ellison II Plan · Mableton, GA 30168

$311,900

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,912 sqft · SingleFamily · 499 Days on market

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +5.6/30.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.1/10.0
• DSCR +0.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The Ellison II features a modern, open layout, perfect for comfortable living and entertaining. A generous kitchen with plenty of counter space for meal preparation and an optional island for those who love to entertain opens up to the spacious family room. The second-floor owner's suite boasts a huge bath and walk-in closet. Two well-appointed additional bedrooms and a perfectly placed laundry room finish off the second floor.

Key facts

• 2 parking spots
• Listed 499 days

🏗️ New construction. The $311,900 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $392,303.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $312k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-812 ($-10k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $275k (11.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $240k (22.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $240k (22.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#94 in GA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, cost of living A-, crime B+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute D-.
• Cobb County (suburban): math 39% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #25 of 174 in GA (top 14%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 126 active listings in the ZIP; 14 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 19d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,625 units permitted in Cobb County in 2024 (389 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,404/mo this rent would consume 45% of the median local household income ($64k/yr) (locally 993% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Cobb County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 499 days — a 12% lower offer ($274k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $240,411 (22.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 499 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 23% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.61% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.81%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.87%
• DSCR: 0.61
• GRM: 13.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $392,303
• List price: $311,900
• Delta: -20.50%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1045 Elowen Dr	0.15mi	3/2.5	1,933 (+1%)	2mo	$399,900	$207	89
1075 Elowen Dr	0.17mi	3/2.5	1,909 (-0%)	4mo	$414,900	$217	89
1055 Elowen Dr	0.16mi	3/2.5	1,933 (+1%)	3mo	$413,900	$214	88
1155 Elowen Dr	0.23mi	3/2.5	1,909 (-0%)	2mo	$399,900	$209	87
1065 Elowen Dr	0.16mi	3/2.5	1,933 (+1%)	4mo	$411,140	$213	87
1250 Elowen Dr	0.24mi	3/2.5	1,933 (+1%)	0mo	$399,750	$207	86
1320 Elowen Dr	0.32mi	3/2.5	1,909 (-0%)	7mo	$391,965	$205	79
1225 Elowen Dr	0.28mi	3/2.5	1,909 (-0%)	9mo	$409,000	$214	79
1105 Elowen Dr	0.32mi	3/2.5	1,933 (+1%)	8mo	$417,875	$216	77
1225 Elowen Dr	0.54mi	3/2.5	1,909 (-0%)	9mo	$409,000	$214	67
5818 Dogwood Cir	0.45mi	3/3.0	2,059 (+8%)	7mo	$365,000	$177	58
5818 Eastside Dr SW	0.68mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,683 (-12%)	3mo	$344,000	$204	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.77% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -34.5%
• Equity multiple: -0.10×
• Total profit: $-120,519
• Equity at exit: $58,494

10-year hold

• IRR: -60.6%
• Equity multiple: -0.75×
• Total profit: $-192,088
• Equity at exit: $33,919

Cash invested: $109,845 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 30168

• Home prices YoY: -25.5%
• Rents YoY: 0.8%
• Active inventory: 126
• Price-to-rent: 10.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,404 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,057
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$490 /mo · $5,885/yr
• Insurance: −$163
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$505
• Net cashflow: $-812

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,432

Max offer price $274,824

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $98,076
• Closing costs: $11,769
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 14 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5065 Landover Way Austell, GA	4.0	3.0	2465	$2,665	$1.08	20d	1	0.17mi
2610 Ravencliff Dr Austell, GA	3.0	2.5	1959	$2,760	$1.41	24d	1	0.23mi
5794 Pinecrest Rd Austell, GA	4.0	2.0	1296	$2,300	$1.77	43d	1	0.46mi
5874 S Gordon Rd Austell, GA	3.0	2.0	1286	$1,850	$1.44	12d	1	0.64mi
2020 Annette Ln Austell, GA	3.0	2.0	1452	$1,900	$1.31	24d	1	0.70mi
1917 Annette Ln Austell, GA	3.0	2.0	1585	$1,796	$1.13	12d	1	0.72mi
1860 Gherry Dr Austell, GA	3.0	2.0	1465	$1,606	$1.10	5d	1	0.76mi
6192 Pine Bluff Ct Austell, GA	3.0	2.0	1296	$1,831	$1.41	16d	1	0.99mi
5575 Burrus Rd Austell, GA	3.0	2.0	1301	$1,500	$1.15	12d	1	1.04mi
5995 Spring St Austell, GA	3.0	2.0	1905	$4,500	$2.36	1d	1	1.19mi
1421 Thunderwood Ct SW Mableton, GA	3.0	2.0	1584	$2,100	$1.33	18d	1	1.35mi
6230 Love St Austell, GA	4.0	2.0	1452	$4,950	$3.41	43d	1	1.36mi
5107 Huntcrest Dr SW Mableton, GA	3.0	2.5	2388	$2,400	$1.01	43d	1	1.36mi
6290 Love St Unit B Austell, GA	2.0	2.0	2173	$1,600	$0.74	12d	1	1.39mi

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $311,900 Active 499 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $311,900 Active 498 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $311,900 Active 497 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $311,900 Active 496 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $311,900 Active 494 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $311,900 Active 493 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $311,900 Active 490 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $311,900 Active 489 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $311,900 Active 488 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $311,900 Active 485 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $311,900 Active 484 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $311,900 Active 483 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $311,900 Active 482 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $311,900 Active 481 DOM
15. 2026-04-14
    price $311,900 431-char remark

    Show marketing remark (431 chars)

    The Ellison II features a modern, open layout, perfect for comfortable living and entertaining. A generous kitchen with plenty of counter space for meal preparation and an optional island for those who love to entertain opens up to the spacious family room. The second-floor owner's suite boasts a huge bath and walk-in closet. Two well-appointed additional bedrooms and a perfectly placed laundry room finish off the second floor.

16. 2026-03-25
    price $316,900 431-char remark

    Show marketing remark (431 chars)

    The Ellison II features a modern, open layout, perfect for comfortable living and entertaining. A generous kitchen with plenty of counter space for meal preparation and an optional island for those who love to entertain opens up to the spacious family room. The second-floor owner's suite boasts a huge bath and walk-in closet. Two well-appointed additional bedrooms and a perfectly placed laundry room finish off the second floor.

17. 2025-04-09
    price $321,900 431-char remark

    Show marketing remark (431 chars)

    The Ellison II features a modern, open layout, perfect for comfortable living and entertaining. A generous kitchen with plenty of counter space for meal preparation and an optional island for those who love to entertain opens up to the spacious family room. The second-floor owner's suite boasts a huge bath and walk-in closet. Two well-appointed additional bedrooms and a perfectly placed laundry room finish off the second floor.

18. 2025-04-07
    price $324,900 431-char remark

    Show marketing remark (431 chars)

    The Ellison II features a modern, open layout, perfect for comfortable living and entertaining. A generous kitchen with plenty of counter space for meal preparation and an optional island for those who love to entertain opens up to the spacious family room. The second-floor owner's suite boasts a huge bath and walk-in closet. Two well-appointed additional bedrooms and a perfectly placed laundry room finish off the second floor.

19. 2025-04-01
    price $316,900 431-char remark

    Show marketing remark (431 chars)

    The Ellison II features a modern, open layout, perfect for comfortable living and entertaining. A generous kitchen with plenty of counter space for meal preparation and an optional island for those who love to entertain opens up to the spacious family room. The second-floor owner's suite boasts a huge bath and walk-in closet. Two well-appointed additional bedrooms and a perfectly placed laundry room finish off the second floor.

20. 2025-03-05
    price $313,900 431-char remark

    Show marketing remark (431 chars)

    The Ellison II features a modern, open layout, perfect for comfortable living and entertaining. A generous kitchen with plenty of counter space for meal preparation and an optional island for those who love to entertain opens up to the spacious family room. The second-floor owner's suite boasts a huge bath and walk-in closet. Two well-appointed additional bedrooms and a perfectly placed laundry room finish off the second floor.

21. 2025-02-04
    listed $311,900 Active 431-char remark

    Show marketing remark (431 chars)

    The Ellison II features a modern, open layout, perfect for comfortable living and entertaining. A generous kitchen with plenty of counter space for meal preparation and an optional island for those who love to entertain opens up to the spacious family room. The second-floor owner's suite boasts a huge bath and walk-in closet. Two well-appointed additional bedrooms and a perfectly placed laundry room finish off the second floor.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,849
• − Mortgage interest: −$21,975
• − Property taxes: −$5,885
• − Insurance: −$1,962
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,308
• − Management: −$2,308
• − Depreciation: −$11,412
• Taxable loss: −$17,000
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,080
• After-tax cash flow: $-5,662/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Cobb County
• NCES district ID: 1301290
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $68,845
• Composite: 37.93/100
• National rank: #4308
• State rank: #25 of 174 in GA

Livability — Mableton

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #94
• US rank: #7534

Category grades

Amenities F Commute D- Cost of living A- Crime B+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety C User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Mableton, GA
• County: Cobb County · 777,758 people
• City population: 41,829
• Metro: Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Alpharetta, GA
• Population (ZIP): 26,612
• Household income: $64,059
• Rent vs Own: 50.0% rent · 50.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 993.0

Population outlook (Cobb County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 868,385 people
• By 2030: 929,614 · +7.1%
• By 2040: 1,047,533 · +20.6%
• By 2050: 1,155,537 · +33.1%
• By 2075: 1,405,030 · +61.8%
• By 2100: 1,555,058 · +79.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.55)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 63% Hispanic / Latino 21% White 10% Two or more races 9% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 13%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Hispanic 1%
• Foreign-born: 19% · Canada
• Languages at home: 74% English-only · Spanish 20% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Cobb

• 2024 margin: D (+14.9) · D 56.9% · R 42.0% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +24.3pp toward D · 2008: -9.4pp · 2024: 14.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+14.9 2020: D+14.3 2016: D+2.1 2012: R+12.6 2008: R+9.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -84.55%
• Current HPI: 246.7995
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.77%
• Metro: Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Alpharetta, GA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
▸Retail	1	$160B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
▸Airlines	1	$62B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$47B
▸Utilities	1	$25B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-14 Price Changed $311,900 Zillow
• 2026-03-25 Price Changed $316,900 Zillow
• 2025-04-09 Price Changed $321,900 Zillow
• 2025-04-07 Price Changed $324,900 Zillow
• 2025-04-01 Price Changed $316,900 Zillow
• 2025-03-05 Price Changed $313,900 Zillow
• 2025-02-04 Listed $311,900 Zillow