220 Sierra St

Cartago, CA 93549

$85,000B

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,087 sqft · Built 1963 · SingleFamily · Pending · 20 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,200/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$446
• Tax + insurance: −$142
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$252
• Net cashflow: $361/mo
• Annual: $4,330/yr
• Cap rate: 11.39%
• Cash-on-cash: 18.20%
• DSCR: 1.81
• 1% rule: 1.41%
• Cash to close: $23,800

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $85k. Condition is rated fair.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $361 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $85k).
• It's been on market 20 days — a 2% lower offer ($84k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $84k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($588 loan paydown + $3k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 43/100 on livability (#1,351 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A, employment B+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Lone Pine Unified (rural): math 40% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #608 of 1,400 in CA (top 43%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 16 active listings in the ZIP; 18 units permitted in Inyo County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Inyo County population projected at -18% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $24k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 10, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$30k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 13→37/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
• Built in 1963 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)

• Major: Bathroom — Exposed plumbing and no fixtures indicate a major repair is needed.
• Moderate: Exterior siding — Weathered appearance suggests repainting or replacement is needed.
• Minor: Interior walls — Signs of wear but not severe enough to require immediate action.